Seoul's reports on Kim Jong Un's uncle questioned by Korea watchers

South Korean intelligence agencies have confirmed preliminary reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song Thaek has been ousted from his government post, in what analysts tell Al Jazeera could be a sign of instability in Pyongyang — or a smear by Seoul aimed at projecting an unstable image of its hermit neighbor to the north.

Analysts question the veracity of the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) report that Jang had not been seen in public since Nov. 6, and that he had been removed from the office of vice chairman of the National Defense Commission of North Korea.

The South Korean Unification Ministry was unable to independently confirm the NIS’ findings to Al Jazeera, but reported that Jang's last public appearance was on Nov. 6.

Asked for sources, ministry representative Jiseon Choi said the assertion was "confirmed through the North Korean media" — the last time Jang was mentioned by Pyongyang's state-run press. The NIS was not immediately available for comment.

T.J. Pempel, professor of East Asian political science at the University of California, Berkeley, said there is reason to be wary of Seoul's reports on the North in general.

"You should always be a bit skeptical of (South Korean) newspapers, and even more skeptical of claims by lawmakers," he said.

Charles K. Armstrong, a Columbia University history professor specializing in Korean affairs, said he had not seen any independent evidence that Jang has been ousted.

"It may be true, but unsubstantiated rumors about North Korea come out of South Korea quite often and need to be verified before we can accept them as fact," he said. "The effect of such a rumor is to give the impression that the North Korean regime is unstable, which may be more wishful thinking on Seoul's part than reality."

In August, international media reported that Kim Jong Un's rumored ex-girlfriend had been one of 12 people executed for violating pornography laws and possessing Bibles, which is illegal in North Korea.

The original report came from the respected South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, citing "a Chinese source." The report did not specify what knowledge the informant had of North Korean affairs. There was some skepticism over the credibility of the report, and the newspaper did not return calls from Al Jazeera.

Information on North Korean affairs is difficult to confirm. On Aug. 29, The Washington Post reported that U.S. spy agencies had determined North Korea was one of several "blind spots," where information is near impossible to obtain.

North Korea continues to bewilder U.S. intelligence authorities, despite efforts to "all but (surround) the nuclear-armed country with surveillance platforms," according to U.S. government documents revealed in The Washington Post.

Sokeel Park, director of research at the human-rights advocacy group Liberty in North Korea, told Al Jazeera that false reports on the North produce a response in the international community that is dangerous for NGOs like his.

"Because there's so much cynicism, which is an understandable result of media treatment of North Korea, the result of that is that there's a constant challenge to fight back against people taking a lot of care not to run with sensationalized and unverified stories."

Park believes the allegations to be true, although, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency, the NIS reports that Jang's falling out with his nephew by marriage is only "likely."

"They've done this knowing they could be refuted pretty quickly," he said. "They've done it at a time when they (the NIS) are under a great deal of scrutiny."

Still, Park noted, "it could be wrong. (The NIS has) gotten it wrong before."

"The idea that he's out of the picture might be untrue … This report may just mean his power has taken a big blow. But he's been such a powerful figure, with fingers in so many pies and big business interests. It's hard to believe he'd be ousted that quickly."