Are economic woes driving down US birthrate?

Caitlin Juetten couldn't find a job for a year after she graduated from New York University with a political science degree. She eventually landed a social media job for a software company, was later laid off, and is a nanny now. She may go to graduate school and move in with her parents. Her boyfriend, a writer, is also unemployed and lives with his parents.

"I'm not going to get married for a while," Juetten says. "I used to think that by the time I'm 30, I'd have kids. Now that I'm 25, I'm thinking this is never happening ... I'm not even going to get married until I get health insurance."

The United States' 86 million millennials — more numerous than baby boomers — may alter the growth trajectory of the U.S. population for years to come.

The United States has been the envy of the developed world for more than 20 years in the way its fertility rate has stayed near the 2.1 percent replacement level — the rate needed to keep the population stable.

But the average number of births per woman has fallen 12 percent from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to its lowest in 25 years.

Deaths among whites who are not Hispanic outnumbered births for the first time ever last year, a sign that the country may face an age imbalance that could threaten its ability to support a growing aging population. The oldest of 77 million boomers turn 67 this year. The oldest millennials are 31.

The recession has taken a toll and created more obstacles for a generation already cool to the idea of matrimony. Mired in student-loan debt, struggling to find work and often forced to live with their parents, millennials have plenty of reasons to postpone having kids.

Adding to the decline: Fewer immigrants are coming into the country because of poor job prospects. Members of the largest group — Hispanics — have helped prop up the national birth rate because they are younger and have more children. But last year, Hispanic births declined at an even faster rate than non-Hispanic whites.

"The recession had a big impact — a double-barreled impact," said William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "It affected people here in the United States, delaying marriage along with childbearing, buying a home. And immigration slowed down."

A fertility rate at replacement level is a sign of economic vitality for developed nations. Without that balance, countries are left with an older population and not enough young people who can work and support social programs to care for the elderly.

It's a huge challenge for countries such as Italy and Japan, where rates are as low as 1.4. In Japan, deaths outnumbered births nationwide last year. Some countries, including Germany and Russia, among other countries, offer financial incentives to encourage women to have babies.

In the U.S., most experts believe the fertility slide will be short-lived and rates will bounce back when confidence in the economy is restored but "I don't think people expect this to happen overnight," said Carl Haub, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau.

"A false alarm," said John Seager, president of Population Connection, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit formerly known as Zero Population Growth. "The United States does not have a people shortage ... We have millions of Americans who are unemployed and upwards of 16 million kids living in poverty. If we worry about children, that's what we should be talking about."

The future workforce will be more productive and healthier if people have smaller families because "they have more resources for each child," he said.

Plus, Seager said, older people can work longer, which will make them less dependent on younger people.

But millennials' different attitudes toward marriage and parenting may be a generational shift that has longer-lasting consequences.

Michael De Anda Muñoz is in no rush to get to the altar and start a family. Nor are many of his peers, mostly college-educated 20-somethings.

"Marriage is not really a goal for us," said Muñoz, a 24-year-old Ph.D. candidate in sociology at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "Some are completely against it ... A lot of us come from families where parents are divorced."

Demographic Intelligence, a Charlottesville, Va., company that produces quarterly birth forecasts for consumer product companies that want to keep tabs on demand for toys or diapers, sees the biggest drop in fertility among young adults.

"This could be kind of a new normal," said Sam Sturgeon, president at Demographic Intelligence. "We're waiting to see: Is this merely a delay or is it a reduction in total numbers?"

For some millennials, getting their footing financially trumps the allure of familial bliss.

"A lot of us want to have jobs first and want to be able to enjoy money from that job and travel," he said, adding that even his mother advises him to take his time.

In 2012, the median age of men who married for the first time was 28.6, up from 26.1 in 1990. Women: 26.6, up from 23.9.

Some will sign a mortgage before they sign a marriage license. A Coldwell Banker survey earlier this year found that almost a quarter of married homeowners aged 18 to 34 bought a home together before they were married, compared with 14 percent of those aged 45 and up.

"This college-educated class is more concerned about getting their feet on the ground with their career," Frey said. "When they have those things in place, they'll catch up."

Or will they?

Ashley Medley's parents divorced when she was a teenager and many of her friends have opted to stay single and childless.

Medley, 27, a research associate at a Washington, D.C., law firm is gay and said she and several of her straight friends believe "you can be a young professional and maintain a single life without kids, without a partner or long-term relationship."

Some of her friends say they don't have time for boyfriends or girlfriends. And some of her married friends have moved back in with their parents or in-laws, either to help them fend off foreclosure on their homes or to save money to buy their own houses.

"This seems a legitimate reason to delay having children," Medley said.

For Lisa Berube, 29, who is finishing a doctorate in sociology, and whose husband, Matt, was laid off as a Chicago school teacher, putting off having children was no longer an option. If they waited for financial stability, it might be too late.

"The only friends I have who have children have partners who are older and financially stable," she said. "We really wanted kids."

Berube is expecting her first child in late January.