John Seigenthaler: Let me just start with Iran. What do you make of this diplomatic dance between the U.S. and Iran? Is this truly a thaw in relations?
Tony Blair: I think the change in atmosphere, in language, obviously offers an opportunity for Iran and the United States to see if they can resolve this, along with the rest of the international community, so that you don’t get the very toxic and dangerous situation of Iran with a nuclear weapon -- or conflict -- as the choices.
So, sure, if we can resolve this diplomatically let’s do so. But I believe there will be a degree of skepticism -- perfectly understandably -- or at least a degree of testing, maybe is a better way of putting it. Because people will want to know that what is now better language is matched by better actions.
Do you believe President (Hassan) Rouhani when he says he doesn’t want -- Iran does not want -- nuclear weapons, or does not have nuclear weapons?
‘I don’t know’ is the honest answer to that. That’s why I think you’ve got to test this by actions, because there is a pattern of behavior from Iran on this issue over the years, which is occasionally to open up and appear to be very open to a compromise -- and then you find that the accumulation of the material for the program just continues.
So that’s why I say the important thing is to test this -- and by the way I’ve no doubt at all so far as President Obama is concerned he’s reaching out in order to see whether this possibility exists. But I think it would be a huge mistake for the Iranian leadership not to realize he’s also absolutely serious about his bottom line, which is that Iran shouldn’t acquire nuclear capabilities.
So if President Rouhani is sincere in this, great -- and there will be no one more pleased than, well, actually the international community as a whole.
So what does Rouhani have to do to pass the test?
I think there are a whole series of issues, as you know, around steps that need to be taken in order to verify what’s happening, in order to make sure that certain clear thresholds have not been passed.
For example, I think in the next couple of days I think there is a meeting of the international atomic agency in Vienna, where just recently the atomic energy agency issued some very skeptical statements about Iran. Now, the question is at that meeting can the right assurances be given? So, I don’t think there is much doubt about which steps are necessary. The question is, will they be taken?
And obviously Iran will want to know that if it does do the right thing it gets an answering call, as it were, from the international community, and from America in particular.
Let me switch to Syria just for a moment. You’ve said that world leaders shouldn’t let Syria off the hook. What do you mean by that?
What I mean is that we now have a situation where Syria as a country is disintegrating. Over 100,000 people have died, millions of people displaced, there’s no end in sight, there have been over 1,000 people killed by the use of chemical weapons.
What is very important is that, yes, as we make sure that those chemical weapons are -- there’s a process of verifying and then destroying them -- yes, as we make sure that happens, which is important, we’ve also got to make sure we take the steps necessary to bring this conflict to an end. And of course the only way of doing that is through some sort of political initiative, but we have to make it very clear that we’re standing on the side of the moderate and sensible people in Syria who want to see a conclusion to this and helping them.
And, I assume, back this up with military action if necessary. What sort of military action?
Look, I’ve spoken over the last two years on the need to intervene. I guess I’ve not got anything really to add to that. I was talking in an earlier stage of creating no-fly zones and areas of safety for the Syrian opposition. This situation has become more complicated. This is why Western governments and Western public opinion, by the way, has become quite conflicted at the moment – because, yes, people see the terrible things that President Assad (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) has done with the use of artillery and, as we’ve seen, with the use of chemical weapons.
But they also know now there are, I’m afraid, elements within the Syrian opposition that are extreme -- linked to al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups -- and who are also committing atrocities. So, this situation has become more complicated. But my point is, those who thought we could just stay out of this altogether are being shown not to be correct because in the end, the longer we let this happen, the worse the situation becomes.
And I fear the bill we’ll get for Syria -- I mean the suffering of the Syrian people obviously is the paramount concern and it’s terrible. But the bill we’ll all face for the disintegration of Syria is very heavy, I think.
It seems with Iran, and Syria, and Egypt, and Israel and the Palestinians, and a number of other countries in the Arab world, that world leaders really are on the verge of some real possibilities. Do you have hope for sort of solving some of the disputes and conflicts that have been going on in world over the last 10, 15 years?
I think there’s an opportunity. I mean certainly so far as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is concerned. I was at the main international community meeting today and Secretary (John) Kerry was speaking -- and various other ministers, Catherine Ashton for the European Union, and Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. secretary general -- and there was a sense that with a re-launched peace process, and strong economic initiative to go along side it, there’s some sense of possibility again.
But, you know, the region is in turmoil. Personally I think we’re in a process of long-term transition in this region, where people need to understand in the end that the only future for the region is people living together in tolerance and respect, irrespective of what their faith is, or their sect is or their nation is. And that has still got a long way to go, I fear.
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