Officials hint at possible extension to Iran nuclear talks

A deadline to resolve a 12-year-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program may be extended from Monday to March because of sharp disagreements between Tehran and Western powers, officials close to the talks said Thursday.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Vienna on Thursday evening for what Washington and its allies had hoped would be the culmination of months of difficult diplomacy between Iran and the so-called P5+1 — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.

The aim is to remove sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, but the talks have long been deadlocked. The timing for lifting sanctions and future scope of Iran's uranium enrichment are key stumbling blocks.

Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on Thursday highlighted another hurdle: Iran has yet to explain suspected atomic bomb research to the U.N.’s nuclear agency, one of the conditions of the six powers for lifting sanctions.

"Important points of difference remain," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told reporters at a joint news conference with Kerry in Paris.

The latest round of talks between the powers began on Tuesday and is likely to last right up to the self-imposed Nov. 24 deadline for a final agreement. Talks have been delayed once already after the initial July deadline was extended six months.

"Some kind of interim agreement at this point is likely, or perhaps at best a framework agreement by Monday that needs to be worked out in the coming weeks and months," said a Western diplomat close to the talks.

U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said this week a comprehensive deal would be difficult, but not impossible, to achieve by Monday. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said he was not optimistic, but that there may be a way of extending the deadline.

A senior Iranian official had similar expectations.

"We need more time to resolve technical issues, and don’t forget that the time frame for lifting sanctions is still a huge dispute," the Iranian official said, adding that an extension until March was a possibility. Western officials also suggested March was an option, with a resumption of talks in January.

The officials said, however, that Iran and the P5+1 were not actively discussing an extension yet and would push for a deal by the deadline.

Officials close to the negotiations say that Iran wants all key sanctions on oil exports and banking terminated almost immediately, not merely suspended as U.S. and European officials have said.

Although the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran is a signatory, allows the development of full fuel cycle nuclear programs — including uranium enrichment — for civilian purposes, the U.S. and its allies fear that Tehran could use infrastructure permitted by the NPT to eventually break from the treaty and build nuclear weapons. As a result, they are demanding that Iran accept restrictions on its nuclear work beyond those required by the treaty, to create greater safeguards against any “breakout” toward the creation of weapons. Iran, which denies that it seeks nuclear weapons, says it wants only a civilian nuclear energy program and relief from sanctions that have placed a major hindrance on its economic growth.

But while much of the focus in the current negotiations concerns the technical elements, including the scope of sanctions relief and number of centrifuges Iran would be allowed to retain under such a deal, the negotiating environment is heavily conditioned by political dynamics.

In its report from August, the International Crisis Group (ICG) noted, “The struggle over the number of centrifuges is a surrogate for a more basic one: The Iranian revolution was predicated on rejecting outside powers’ dictates after a century of Western intervention in Iranian affairs; for the West, its concerns are founded on Iran’s behavior as an anti-status quo, revolutionary power.”

Ali Vaez, an expert with ICG, told Al Jazeera last month that the parties’ concerns with domestic politics are hindering their ability to reach a deal.

“The problem is that both sides are more driven by how to sell a deal to their domestic skeptics than how to get a deal,” Vaez said, adding the “parties have never been closer to clinching a landmark agreement” despite the outstanding roadblocks.

Domestic constituencies hostile to compromise remain strong on both the Iranian and U.S. sides, and a delay in concluding an agreement increases the opportunities for spoilers to win the day.

Al Jazeera and Reuters