Fowl is fair: Thanksgiving meal price not affected by water shortages

More than 80 percent of California is suffering from an extreme or exceptional drought, conditions that are pushing farmers to take crops out of production in a state that provides half the fruits and vegetables on Americans’ tables.

So this Thanksgiving, a holiday that almost always entails a large home-cooked meal, one would think consumers should be bracing for an astronomical hit to their pocketbooks amid price increases.

Not so.

Because of a dramatic drop in gas prices, the cost of transporting food to stores has gone down. And because the major effects of the record-breaking California drought may not be felt for at least another year, consumers may be spared. There are no shortages and no big price hikes.

“So far, it’s really hard to discern a major drought impact on retail food prices,” said John Anderson, deputy chief economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “It’s kind of hard to understand for those who are feeling the effect and impact of the drought firsthand.”

The group’s 29th annual Thanksgiving price survey shows a very modest 37-cent hike in the average cost of a Thanksgiving feast for 10 people, including turkey and all the trimmings (bread stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, vegetables, pumpkin pie with whipped cream and coffee or milk). The meal will cost an average of $49.41 this year, compared with $49.04 in 2013, according to the informal survey. “That’s very stable,” Anderson said.

But enjoy it now, because the good news is not likely to last. The drought will eventually have an impact on prices of fresh fruits and vegetables and perennial crops such as pistachios, almonds and walnuts. “If we don’t get snow pack and reservoirs recharged, there will be really significant cuts in production,” Anderson said. “If we get to a point that people are actually putting orchards out of production, that’s an effect that could show up fairly suddenly.”

Foods that showed the largest increases were sweet potatoes (up 28 cents, to $3.48 for three pounds) and milk (up 10 cents, to $3.76 a gallon).

Annemarie Kuhns, an agricultural economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, said the price of the mainstay of Thanksgiving meals, turkey, has dropped.

The average price of frozen turkey was $1.72 per pound last November but $1.67 this year.

“There are so many factors that affect the price that you pay — the number of exports, the number of imports, the price of gas for transportation from farm to retail establishments,” she said. “And a lot of stores have big sales on holiday staples … A lot of decisions farmers are making now do not pass through the retail level until later.”