Census shows political influence of South, West set to grow

An analysis of how recent census population estimates are likely to change the balance of power in Congress should put to rest any doubt over whether sheer demographics can equal political power for individual states.

Texas, the nation’s second-largest state and third-fastest-growing in the past year, stands to gain three seats in the House of Representatives by 2020 if it maintains this decade’s growth rate, according to projections by Election Data Services.

Texas has gained multiple seats in the House every decade since 1960. It now has 36. If trends continue, it may be the only one to add more than one in 2020, when the 435 seats in the House are reapportioned on the basis of the decennial U.S. census.

“In past decades, there were many more multiple-seat gains,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based political consulting firm that specializes in redistricting.

That can be chalked up to the lingering effect of the recession, which put the brakes on moves across state lines and slowed birthrates.

California, the most populous state, suffered a setback in 2010 when it did not gain a seat for the first time in its history, largely because fewer people were moving there. But it appears that people are heading west again, and on the basis of population growth so far this decade, the state could add one seat in the House to its current 53.

Up to 17 states could gain or lose districts by 2020, Brace said.

The projected winners: Arizona (from nine seats to 10), California (53 to 54), Colorado (seven to eight), Florida (27 to 28), North Carolina (13 to 14), Oregon (five to six), Texas (36 to 39) and Virginia (11 to 12).

Most of the states that are likely to lose seats are in the Northeast and Midwest, reflecting the nation’s population shift to the Sun Belt. They are Illinois (18 to 17), Michigan (14 to 13), Minnesota (eight to seven), New York (27 to 26), Ohio (16 to 15), Pennsylvania (18 to 17), Rhode Island (2 to 1) and West Virginia (three to two). Alabama is the only Southern state on the losing end (seven to six).

However, Brace cautions that events between now and 2020 could alter the projections. “Major events like Katrina and the 2008 recession each changed population growth patterns, and that impacted and changed the next reapportionment,” he said.

Louisiana, for example, went from seven to six seats in 2010, after Hurricane Katrina’s devastation in 2005 forced many residents to relocate out of state. “We are only at the midpoint of the decade, and a lot of things could change,” he said.