U.S.
Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor/Getty Images
If there were any doubt that America’s population is aging, new data from the Census Bureau confirms that fact. The U.S. had the highest number of deaths in history and fewer births, resulting in the smallest gain from natural increase in 35 years.
Population estimates released on Thursday show that the recession continued to have an impact on Americans’ decision to have children, according to analysis by Kenneth Johnson, demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey Institute.
There were fewer than 4 million births from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013, compared with a record 4.3 million from 2006 to 2007, at the peak of the economic boom. “The recession was a major factor in this fertility decline,” Johnson said. “Young women are having fewer babies.”
In almost a third of the counties surveyed — including almost 40 percent of rural counties — deaths outnumbered births, his research showed. Eight of the top 10 counties where that was true were in Florida, though that state is popular as a retirement destination. More people also died than were born in Maine for the second consecutive year. That was true as well for West Virginia, which has experienced this population imbalance for several years.
Kenneth Johnson
University of New Hampshire
But the picture was not uniform across the country. The census estimates showed that parts of the Great Plains were no longer depopulating, thanks to an oil boom that has boosted the region’s economy and seen many people flock to the area looking for jobs. Six of the 10 fastest-growing metropolitan areas were in or near the Great Plains: Odessa, Midland and Austin in Texas, Fargo and Bismarck in North Dakota, and Casper, Wyo.
“As the first results from the 2012 Economic Census revealed yesterday, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries were the most rapidly growing part of our nation’s economy over the last several years,” said Census Bureau Director John Thompson. “A major reason was the energy boom on the Plains, which attracted job seekers from around the country.”
Seven of the 10 fastest-growing micropolitan areas — urban regions anchored by a city with fewer than 50,000 people but more than 10,000 — are also in the Great Plains region. Williston, N.D., grew the fastest at 10.7 percent, followed by Dickinson, N.D., Andrews, Texas, and Minot, N.D.
“While it’s true that Fargo, Bismarck, Odessa and other small energy ‘boomtowns’ have fast, recent growth, U.S. migration levels are still down and most people are hesitant to locate to the outer suburbs and smaller places,” said William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
But census estimates indicate that there is a slight uptick in the number of people moving again. During the recession, big cities were growing faster because they were losing fewer people to suburbs and other states. Now their growth has slowed.
“When the recession came, domestic migration slowed way down,” Johnson said. “Now it’s starting to pick up a little bit again and they’re starting to experience domestic outmigration again.”
Rural America is still losing people, but less than the previous year — 28,000 people compared with 48,000. Rural counties that appeal to retirees and have recreational amenities grew the fastest. The nation’s fastest-growing metro was The Villages in Florida.
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