Is Erdogan his own worst enemy?

The worst mining accident in Turkish history has once again thrust the country's embattled prime minister into a head-on confrontation between his government and the nation. The conflict may now translate into an insurmountable political challenge for the current Turkish government.

The accident, which occurred in the coal-mining town of Soma in western Turkey, has left at least 284 dead and many more missing after a fire of unknown origin broke out nearly 7,000 feet underground Tuesday afternoon.

"We are heading toward this accident likely being the deadliest ever in Turkey," Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told reporters at the mine, as condolences poured in from the international community. As the gravity of the accident set in, mourning devolved into rage across Turkey against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dismissal of the event as par for the course in the mining industry.

Canceling his official schedule and announcing three days of national mourning, Erdogan arrived in Soma on Wednesday as some locals were attacking the local offices of the prime minister’s AK Party. In last month's municipal elections, the AK Party's mayoral candidate won comfortably in what was understood as a referendum on Erdogan's rule after months of damning corruption allegations that have embroiled senior AK Party officials and the prime minister himself.

Despite the corruption scandal, a sluggish economy and severe international criticism over the rule of law in Turkey, Erdogan appeared to be strengthening his grip on power before the mining tragedy struck. In addition to clear AK Party victories in key urban centers like Istanbul and Ankara in the local elections, the prime minister neutralized anti-government protesters on May Day before they could retake the streets of Istanbul.

The Turkish government had closed Istanbul’s iconic Taksim Square ahead of the protests on May Day, despite vocal calls from leftist groups, trade unions and the country's main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Erdogan instructed more than 40,000 police officers to effectively shut down Istanbul in order to prevent a repeat of the large Gezi Park protests that engulfed Turkey last summer. Clearly wary of the potential for mass protests against his government, Erdogan demonstrated resolve to shut down Europe's largest city in the middle of a workweek. His plan went off without a hitch.

With May Day and local elections behind him, Erdogan has set his sights on the upcoming presidential election in August. The AK Party has changed its rules, paving the way for Erdogan to run for the Turkish presidency and possibly become a virtually untouchable political force in the country.

That was until the mining disaster in Soma.

It is no secret that the AK Party is working hard to mold Turkey into a regional energy exporter. The country is famously devoid of the oil and gas resources that define the exports of many of its neighbors. In order to sustain the impressive economic growth that the country has experienced over the past 10 years, the Turkish government estimates that it will need to double its energy infrastructure in the next decade.

For now, the government relies heavily on coal, a resource that is bountiful in Turkey, and has led massive privatizations of coal mines throughout the country over the past several years. Cost-cutting measures put in place by the private sector have translated to a relaxation of safety standards, and Erdogan’s AK Party hasn’t countered the measures with stricter government oversight. Last year, the opposition CHP submitted a motion in parliament to review safety conditions in the Soma mine. The motion was dismissed with votes from the AK Party just two weeks ago.

At a hastily arranged press conference in Soma, Erdogan struck a dismissive tone when asked about mining safety in Turkey. "Explosions like this in these mines happen all the time. It's not like these don't happen elsewhere in the world," he said, brushing away criticism that his government could have done more to promote better safety practices in the vital industry. Throughout the course of his press conference in Soma, he provided examples of mining disasters that occurred throughout the industrialized world. However, his examples from Britain, France and the United States mostly occurred in the 19th century. To a grieving nation, Erdogan noted dryly that mining accidents "are the nature of the business."

The Soma tragedy goes far beyond the depths of the coal mining industry, however. According to the Turkish daily Hurriyet, in 2002, 872 workers were killed in occupational accidents; the number increased to 1,235 in 2013. And the International Labor Organization ranked Turkey as the third-worst country in the world for worker deaths in 2012.

While Erdogan might be a cunning and deft politician, he is not one to admit his mistakes, and his attempts to deflect criticism have in fact spurred protests throughout Turkey this week. In Istanbul, protesters calling on the government to step down flared like wildfire. The protests grew in size after a photo emerged of Yusuf Yerkel, one of Erdogan’s advisers, kicking a protester who was being held down by security forces. The image has come to represent the standoff between the prime minister and his countrymen.

Turkish politics are notoriously complex. Political allegiances are fluid and often desperately overlapping. Yet one truism is beginning to emerge in the current political situation: Prime Minister Erdogan, possibly the most successful Turkish politician since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk — the father of the modern Turkish republic — is now his own most formidable political opponent.

He has been able to survive waves of serious corruption allegations by going after the social media platforms where the allegations were spread as opposed to addressing their root cause. He has defeated widespread street protests with increasingly violent suppression tactics. He has remained defiant in the face of growing international criticism over the rule of law in Turkey and his authoritarian tendencies while watching Turkey’s European Union accession bid slip away. Where he remains vulnerable is in his inability to admit mistakes or accept blame. It is that kind of defiance, coupled with the prime minister’s thoughtlessness at a time of national tragedy, that could drive a majority of Turks onto the streets and ultimately unseat him from power.