Big Muddy: Mississippi’s dirty Senate race one of many primaries to watch

Voters will go to the polls Tuesday in Mississippi, Iowa, California and Montana and a number of other states in the latest batch of primaries that will determine who will be the standard-bearers for the Democrats and Republicans in the November midterms.

Among the most interesting and salacious of the primary contests is the Mississippi Republican primary which has pitted tea-party backed insurgent Chris McDaniel, a conservative state senator, versus six-term incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran.

The race has drawn national attention in recent weeks after a band of self-styled tea party activists allegedly conspired to gain access to a convalescent home where Cochran’s wife has long been bedridden with dementia and videotape her. The men are McDaniel supporters but as of yet have no known ties to the campaign. They thought the tape would help their candidate by painting Cochran in a dubious moral light. (The implication the McDaniel supporters hoped to make is that Cochran abandoned his institutionalized wife and is now involved with a longtime staffer.)

Cochran has gone on the air with an ad that shows one of the men and (truthfully) labels him a McDaniel supporter charged with a felony, asking Mississippi voters “say no to dirty politics.”

Whether this will change the minds of voters who have supported the former radio talk show host is hard to judge in a state where there has been scant independent polling, but the incident has allowed Cochran to claim his experience and polish as an advantage — an interesting tack against an anti-incumbent wind.

In a year where the “establishment vs. tea party” storyline that has dominated the media narrative, the Mississippi race is billed as the tea party’s last, best shot at unseating an incumbent senator — a feat it has not been able to manage thus far, in stark contrast to the victories the nascent movement scored in 2010 and 2012 in toppling established veterans.

Cochran has been labeled a “RINO” (“Republican in name only”) for his support of a budget deal to bring an end to the debt-ceiling crisis, and fits the mold of the Washington insider decried by conservative insurgents. In return, the senator has touted his experience — he has been deft at bringing federal dollars to Mississippi, particularly in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. McDaniel, meanwhile, has branded himself a fresh face and found support among so-called movement conservatives.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has funneled $100,000 into the race in favor of Cochran, while conservative organizations like the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservative Fund have been among the largest contributors to McDaniel. Still, Cochran’s campaign illustrates the advantages of incumbency, raising and spending $3.6 million to the McDaniel campaign’s $1 million. Polls thus far show the contest to be a dead heat.

In another much-watched contest, Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst is expected to sail to victory with the support of both tea-party and mainstream factions of the GOP — an impressive turn given how frequently the rift has manifested itself in this year’s primaries. She even attracted the support of Mitt Romney, with the former Massachusetts governor and 2012 GOP presidential candidate making appearances on the campaign trail. Ernst, who has trumpeted her Iowa roots, catapulted to Internet fame after going with an ad that touted her ability to literally castrate hogs as an indicator of her ability to “cut pork” in Washington.

The seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin is seen as one of the GOP’s best shots at a Senate pickup this year.

In California, a crowded field of 18 candidates is vying to claim the place of retiring 40-year House veteran, Democrat Henry Waxman, a renowned liberal. The “jungle primary” — where an all-party field competes for the top two slots and a chance to face off in November — has pitted frontrunners state Sen. Ted Lieu and former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel against radio host and former Clinton administration staffer Matt Miller, and best-selling author, Hollywood self-help guru and prodigious self-funder Marianne Williamson, among others. California’s 33^rd district, which includes Malibu, Hollywood and Palos Verdes and has attracted the involvement of celebrities like Jane Lynch, Eva Longoria and Kim Kardashian, is likely to remain in Democratic hands, though questions about how liberal and how powerful a Democrat make this an important race for the national party.