Iraq: An unclear path forward post-Maliki

Iraq’s political crisis entered a new phase on Monday when its president announced a new prime minister. With the rejection of incumbent Nouri al-Maliki by his own political bloc, the Shia-led government will probably remove the leader who has lost the support of many Sunnis and international partners. Still, experts say it won't be enough to heal the country's sectarian divide amid a brutal offensive by the Al-Qaeda breakaway group, Islamic State.

The fall of Maliki, once a major figure in the U.S. effort to chart a post-Saddam future in Iraq, has been precipitous. The rise of fighters allied with the Islamic State, a feared group that has taken control of large swaths of Iraqi territory in recent months, has been used as further evidence of Maliki's inability to coalesce a political coalition that represents all Iraqis.

That political reality hit home on Monday when Maliki’s own Shia political bloc dumped him in favor of Haider al-Abadi, deputy speaker of parliament.

Maliki railed against the challenge to unseat him, calling it an affront to Iraq’s constitution and illegal.

“The coalition is only represented by its head [Maliki] and no other member in the leadership has the right to sign any papers or documents or agreements,” Maliki said in a letter protesting the nomination of Abadi, according to the Washington Post.

But Reidar Visser, an Iraq expert, wrote that the loss of confidence in Maliki by his own Shia bloc rendered his protest moot.

“[T]oday’s action by the Shiite alliance showed that Maliki’s claim to represent the largest bloc no longer has any basis, because [the] State of Law [coalition] has disintegrated,” he wrote. “Any attempt by him to challenge the nomination through other means than the court will be profoundly anti-democratic.”

Still, the prospect of anti-democratic means remained open for Maliki on Monday, with reports that he had deployed security personnel around Baghdad in an apparent show of force, and some commentators indicated that the country was far from out of the woods of any political crisis.

“We are entering a potential clash,” said an Iraqi official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to the Washington Post. “On the ground, we have tanks and armored vehicles. It’s a very complicated situation with the army.”

But other analysts had a more sanguine appraisal of the development.

“The most important thing that could possibly change in Iraq has just changed,” said Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute in Washington, D.C., about the likely effect of a new premiership in Iraq.

“He’s [Abadi] a thoughtful technocrat – that’s what Iraq needs right now,” said Knights. “The fact that this has happened indicated that he can succeed.”

The Obama administration’s patience with Maliki, who has long been an uncertain ally, has been running thin for months. Though it has continued to provide the Iraqi government with aid, military equipment and logistical support, the administration has consistently pressed for a more inclusive political system to heal Iraq’s sectarian rifts.

Its final verdict on the Maliki government was resounding on Monday with twin developments.

First came the indication that the United States, in addition to continuing airstrikes against Islamic State, was bypassing Iraq's central government and arming Kurdish forces directly in their fight against the group.

Second, both Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joe Biden explicitly welcomed the political transition.

"There should be no use of force, no introduction of troops or militias in this moment of democracy for Iraq," Kerry said. "The government formation process is critical in terms of sustaining stability and calm in Iraq and our hope is that Mr. Maliki will not stir those waters.”

Biden’s message was even more forthright: He called and congratulated Abadi personally. In a transcript of the call provided by the vice president’s office, Biden reiterated the White House’s “commitment to support a new and inclusive Iraqi government.”

According to reporting by the Daily Beast, the U.S. policy of actively trying to find alternatives to Maliki, like Abadi, seems to have been afoot since June.

“We have been working very quietly on the ground and sending messages to various parties that al-Abadi is a viable alternative,” an unnamed U.S. official was quoted as saying to the news website.

In Iraq, U.S. and Iranian interests have, at least temporarily, aligned. Abadi’s nomination as prime minister would not have proceeded without the backing of Tehran, according to a number of experts including Knights. Iran, like Washington, views Maliki as an unreliable partner.

But some analysts questioned whether Monday’s developments would significantly mend the country’s divisions, noting that it would not necessarily usher in a more inclusive Iraq.

Analyst Jane Kinnimont, an expert with Chatham House in London, wrote that the heightened role of outside forces in helping change the domestic political equation in Iraq could have a downside.

“Suggestions that the U.S. has finally withdrawn its support for Maliki reinforce the widespread perception among Iraqis that their next government is being engineered by backroom deals with the U.S., Iran and other regional powers.”