Hawaii to be hit with first hurricane in 22 years

Hurricane Iselle was supposed to weaken as it slowly trudged west across the Pacific. It didn't — and now Hawaii is poised to take its first direct hurricane hit in 22 years.

State officials insist the islands are ready and that people should prepare but not panic.

Hurricane Iselle was expected to arrive on the Big Island on Thursday evening, bringing heavy rains, winds gusting up to 85 mph and flooding in some areas. Weather officials changed their outlook on the system on Wednesday after seeing it get a little stronger, giving it enough oomph to stay a hurricane as it reaches landfall.

"What ended up happening is the storm has resurged just enough to keep its hurricane strength," said Mike Cantin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Cantin said that means stronger winds of 60 to 70 mph, though rainfall estimates of 5 inches to 8 inches in a short timeframe remained unchanged.

"Not a major hurricane, but definitely enough to blow things around," he said.

Iselle loomed about 500 miles east of Hilo before sunset on Wednesday, with sustained winds of 90 mph and traveling about 18 mph.

Cantin said the Big Island's size and terrain would help break up the hurricane, making it only a tropical storm as it passes Maui and Oahu late Thursday and early Friday.

"The volcanoes on the Big Island will do a number on the system," he said.

Hurricane Julio, meanwhile, swirled closely behind at about 75 mph. Forecasters expect it to slowly strengthen and pass north of the Big Island sometime this weekend. But it remains too far away to precisely predict its path and strength.

Hawaii has been directly hit by hurricanes only three times since 1950, though the region has had 147 tropical cyclones over that time. The last time Hawaii was hit with a tropical storm or hurricane was in 1992, when Hurricane Iniki killed six people and destroyed more than 1,400 homes in Kauai, said meteorologist Eric Lau.

It is extremely rare for Hawaii to be hit with not one, but two hurricanes back to back. The storms also come as scientists say climate change in the Atlantic is affecting the Pacific and could be a factor.

Scientists from the University of Hawaii and Australian scientists have found that the current climate models show “a rapid and unprecedented strengthening of the Pacific trade winds, accelerating sea level rise in the western Pacific and impacting both Pacific and global climate.”

“The answer to the puzzle is that recent rapid Atlantic Ocean warming has affected climate in the Pacific,” say the scientists, whose findings were published in the Aug. 3 issue of Nature Climate Change.

“Stronger trade winds in the equatorial Pacific also increase the upwelling of cold waters to the surface. The resulting near-surface cooling in the eastern Pacific amplifies the Atlantic-Pacific pressure seesaw, thus further intensifying the trade winds,” Professor Axel Timmermann, author of the study at UH Mānoa’s International Pacific Research Center, said in a press release.

Those changes have been a direct contributor to recent climate changes in the Pacific, they say.

The two Category 1 hurricanes, the lowest-level classification, have already disrupted tourism, prompted flash flood warnings and led to school closures. Gov. Neil Abercrombie, meanwhile, signed an emergency proclamation allowing officials to tap into a disaster fund set aside by the state Legislature.

"The sole purpose is to see to it the health and safety of the people of Hawaii is first and foremost," Abercrombie said at a news conference surrounded by his cabinet members.

For travelers, Hawaiian Airlines waived reservation change fees and fare differences for passengers who needed to alter travel plans on Thursday and Friday because of the storms. Hawaiian Airlines spokeswoman Ann Botticelli said hundreds of inquires poured in from customers seeking to change their flights.

Some travelers remained hopeful.

Boston resident Jonathan Yorke and his wife booked a Hawaii vacation with their two daughters last year. He has been watching the news to see how the storms could affect their two-week trip to Maui and the Big Island.

"We're all optimists, so we'll make the best of it," Yorke said.

Washington state couple Tracy Black and Chris Kreifels made plans to get married in an outdoor ceremony on the Big Island on Saturday. They spent Wednesday getting a marriage license, adjusting plans and communicating with worried guests on the mainland.

"We see the rain as a blessing," Black said. "It will work out as it's supposed to."

In Waikiki, Gwen Johnson wondered if she would make her flight home on Thursday.

"We're leaving tomorrow and I'm a little concerned if we'll be able to get out with the turbulence and stuff," she said.

Hawaii residents also have had to adjust. Stores have seen long lines this week as people brace themselves.

Some are voting early in primary elections that close on Saturday. The elections include several marquee races, including congressional and gubernatorial races. Abercrombie — who is running for re-election in a tight Democratic primary — said the election is expected to move forward as planned as of Wednesday afternoon.

Also, education officials said public schools on the Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Lanai will be closed on Thursday.

The storms are rare but not unexpected in years with a developing El Nino, a change in ocean temperature that affects weather around the world.

Ahead of this year's hurricane season, weather officials warned that the wide swath of the Pacific Ocean that includes Hawaii could see four to seven tropical cyclones this year.

Al Jazeera and the Associated Press