Why Pakistanis see the hand of the military in protest turmoil

Many Pakistani television viewers tuned to the state-run PTV channel would have seen it all before. As a breaking-news logo filled the screen, an impressively unharried newscaster reported that “protesters have managed to barge their way in to PTV headquarters and they have even managed to make their way into some of the newsrooms. They are armed with sticks and batons.”

“The important thing is that we remain calm right now,” the anchor continued. “There’s no reason to panic at this stage.”

Minutes later the screen went blank.

In days gone by, that spectacle would have signaled yet another military coup — generals have ruled Pakistan for much of its history. This time, however, it was anti-government protesters that had taken over the state broadcaster. They have also laid siege to government buildings and clashed repeatedly with police while demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

From a security perspective, the timing of the protests could not be worse. Pakistan has launched an offensive against domestic Taliban insurgents in the northwest, just as NATO forces count down the weeks to their departure from neighboring Afghanistan. With extremist fighters running rampant through Syria and Iraq, no one needs a political vacuum in the nuclear-armed state under the noses of whose army Osama bin Laden once hid.

Many longtime Pakistan watchers, however, are wondering how two marginal political leaders — Imran  Khan, a former national cricket captain turned politician, and Tahir ul-Qadri, a moderate cleric with a taste for fiery rhetoric — could bring the government to a halt for almost three weeks. But the answer may lie less in the mass appeal of Khan and Qadri than it does in the covert tussle of Pakistan’s generals with the country’s civilian rulers.

Rather than seizing power, as they have done three times before, the soldiers who arrived at PTV headquarters on Monday actually helped clear the studios of demonstrators. Yet, within hours evidence started to emerge that the top brass may have been secretly urging on Khan and Qadri and their 50,000 or so supporters.

For Raza Rumi, a senior fellow with the United States Institute of Peace, the result is a weakened prime minister being reminded that the generals still hold sway.

“The military had retreated in public but they have now taken center-stage once again. But the democratic transition seems intact,” he said.

“It will not be derailed ... for now — and in Pakistan, you always have to add that caveat.”

The chaos of recent weeks seems extraordinary in light of Sharif’s landslide election victory just 15 months ago. Although much of the country had celebrated when he was deposed and arrested by the military in 1999 after a disastrous spell in office, and despite being seen as overly reliant on the counsel of relatives, diplomats had praised Sharif’s fiscal discipline during his current term.

Macroeconomic policies praised by Western governments have brought little relief to ordinary Pakistanis, however, and the repeated power cuts of the long, hot summer have raised political temperatures. Still, nobody imagined Sharif was in trouble when Khan and Qadri announced plans for a march on Islamabad.

Khan, a national hero for leading Pakistan to victory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup, is backed by a new breed of campaigners to politics, energized by his call to sweep away the old elite. He and Qadri have made headway challenging politics as usual and demanding greater transparency.  

The only demand behind which their supporters marched was that Sharif should go. Still, visitors reported a carnival atmosphere. At night, families camped together in the city’s Red Zone — Islamabad’s government quarter, guarded by checkpoints against Taliban attack. By day they sang and waved banners demanding Sharif resign over allegations that last year’s elections were rigged.

What happened next, according to some observers, is an indictment of Sharif’s naivety and Pakistan’s inexperience with democracy.

One diplomatic source said Sharif appeared to panic, going to ground rather than confronting protesters with data from international election observers proving he had won the election fair and square.

“His problem was to treat it as a law and order issue — not a political issue. He hasn’t been visible and now he seems finished, or at least badly weakened,” the source said.

The party atmosphere gave way to violence on Saturday, when Khan and Qadri ordered their supporters to march on the prime minister’s official residence. Their bold move surprised many, coming just as rumors circulated of a deal, limiting Sharif’s powers and ordering an inquiry into election results.

Police responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. Three people died and hundreds more were injured.

Many immediately sensed the hand of the army.

“Surely though the events of Saturday evening were highly choreographed and scripted by some power other than Imran Khan and Tahir ul-Qadri,” is how the newspaper Dawn rather coyly put it.

The generals would certainly have motive to challenge Sharif. They believe he had reneged on a deal to allow his old foe Pervez Musharraf, the general who seized power in 1999, to leave the country rather than stand trial, and they are irritated by what they see as the prime minister’s ambivalent attitude towards a military offensive against the Taliban in the northwest.

Cynical observers wonder how the neophytes Khan and Qadri could have mobilized such numbers. The smoking gun may have been revealed on Monday, not long after PTV began broadcasting again, by Javed Hashmi, who had been one of Khan’s closest lieutenants before falling out with the cricket legend over the decision to march on the prime minister’s house.

“Our leader told us that the matters have been settled and elections will take place in September,” he told reporters.

“Imran Khan said we can’t move ahead without the army.”

Those words were taken by many as confirmation that even if they had not initiated the protests, the generals were certainly seeking to capitalize on them.

Parliament opened a weeklong emergency session on Tuesday as Sharif tries to regain the initiative and demonstrate that he retains enough support to remain in power.

That could set the stage for another high-stakes confrontation between the government and an army which some believe has backed itself into a corner, agitating but so far failing to remove the prime minister, according to Fawad Chaudhry, a senior figure in the opposition Pakistan People’s Party.

“Any rash move from either side could bring everything down,” he said.