Hezbollah, Israel edge closer to a war both would prefer to avoid

A missile ambush by Hezbollah fighters that killed two Israeli soldiers Wednesday has brought the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia movement closer to war with Israel than at any point in the past eight years. Accordingly, celebrations by Hezbollah supporters in Beirut were tempered with a sense of foreboding among the city’s residents over how Israel would respond.

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the rocket attack on an occupied strip of land on Lebanon’s southeast border as the widely anticipated retaliation for Israel’s killing of six Hezbollah members, two of them senior commanders, and an Iranian general in a drone strike 10 days ago near Quneitra in the Golan Heights.

Although Israel initially responded to Wednesday’s attack with a routine artillery bombardment of Lebanese areas facing the ambush site, it remains to be seen whether the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will order a more forceful counterstrike or allow the tensions to ease. Netanyahu and his top security aides were due to meet Wednesday evening to mull options, as rival candidates in Israel’s forthcoming election demanded harsh retaliation.

As news spread in Lebanon of Hezbollah’s retaliation for Israel's Jan. 18 airstrike, the operation drew criticism, celebration and foreboding.

In the movement’s political stronghold in the predominantly Shia southern suburbs of Beirut, the crackle of celebratory automatic rifle fire filled the air, while locals huddled around radio sets and televisions in shops and homes to follow the unfolding drama to the south. But some expressed wariness that Wednesday’s clashes could be the harbinger of a new war. The streets were unusually quiet for a normally bustling neighborhood and some families had even evacuated their homes as a precaution. The area was devastated by Israeli air strikes during the monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Hezbollah’s domestic political opponents criticized it for Wednesday’s attack.

“Hezbollah does not have the right to involve the Lebanese army and government in a battle with Israel,” said Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian political party.

Others sought to press both parties to avoid escalation. Tammam Salam, the Lebanese prime minister, said in a statement “the Israeli escalation on the border with Lebanon after the Shebaa operation might pave the way for dangerous possibilities that do not serve peace and stability in the region”.

Walid Jumblatt, a leader of Lebanon’s Druze community, predicted via his Twitter account that Lebanon “will enter a major turbulent phase.”

The stakes for Israel and Hezbollah are huge. Tit-for-tat exchanges have previously plunged these two bitter enemies into damaging conflagrations that neither necessarily expected, most recently in the war of 2006. Despite the consensus among analysts that neither Israel nor Hezbollah seeks such an escalation at this time, the danger is once again high that they could again stumble into a significant confrontation. 

“Israel has to change the policy by which it responds to missile attacks against its sovereign territory,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, one of Netanyahu’s campaign rivals. He demanded a “harsh” and “disproportionate” response.

Speaking from Sderot in southern Israel, Netanyahu warned that Hezbollah should examine the damage inflicted on Gaza and Hamas by Israel’s offensive last summer. “Hamas suffered the most serious blow since it was founded this past summer and the [Israeli army] is prepared to act on every front,” he said.

The attack occurred shortly before midday on Lebanon’s southeast border between the village of Ghajar and the foot of the Shebaa Farms, a 25-square mile mountainside claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967. (The United Nations maintains that the Shebaa Farms is Syrian territory.)

It began when a Hezbollah unit fired anti-tank missiles at a convoy of Israeli army vehicles, destroying at least two. Security sources in south Lebanon said that a total of six missiles were fired from a distance of around three miles north of the Israeli convoy. Two soldiers were killed and seven others wounded, according to the Israeli army.

Hezbollah claimed the attack in a statement shortly afterward and dedicated it to the “martyrs of Quneitra,” a reference to six Hezbollah personnel and the Iranian general killed in the Golan Heights.

Israel responded by firing more than 130 artillery shells at areas in Lebanon facing the Shebaa Farms.

“We view Hezbollah as responsible,” said Israeli military spokesman Brig. Gen. Moti Almoz. “This is not necessarily the end of the [Israeli army’s] response.”

A Spanish soldier serving with the 10,000-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, was killed in the retaliatory shelling, a UNIFIL spokesman said.

Israeli army outposts in the Shebaa Farms later came under mortar fire from Lebanese territory as well as part of the adjacent Golan Heights that is under the control of the Syrian army and Hezbollah. No casualties were reported from this second attack.

Wednesday’s missile attack had been preceded by the firing of a pair of short-range rockets a day earlier from the Syrian side of the Golan into the Israeli-occupied half. The rockets exploded in open areas and caused no damage, although the Israeli military evacuated a nearby ski resort on Mount Hermon. Tuesday night, Israeli jets attacked Syrian military targets in the Golan in reprisal.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said that the air raids were a “clear message” that Israel would respond “with force and determination” to attacks on its sovereignty.

But Hezbollah’s missile ambush came shortly after Yaalon's statement, swatting the ball back into Israel’s court. Israeli leaders now face the choice of a counterretaliation or de-escalation.
 Diplomatic sources in Beirut said that they had indications that Hezbollah was not looking for a broader conflict with Israel, and that the missile ambush was regarded as an appropriate retaliation for the loss of the six Hezbollah cadres in the Golan.

Still, if Israel chooses to de-escalate it will have left the perception that Hezbollah has restored its ability to deter Israeli attacks after the losses it suffered in the surprise drone strike ten days ago. But new Israeli strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon would raise pressure on the movement’s leadership to order further retaliation, accelerating a cycle of escalation.

Hezbollah is considered the most militarily capable of the Arab armies that have challenged Israel over the years, and possesses a considerable arsenal of missiles that could target Israeli cities.

Beyond claiming responsibility for the missile ambush, Hezbollah has said little. The movement’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, is due to make a keynote speech on Friday afternoon, during which he is expected to elaborate on his party’s stance toward the current tensions.

By that time, Israel’s choices will also be known.