Myanmar holding landmark election

YANGON, Myanmar — Pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi has spent the past two months greeting adoring crowds throughout the country. Thousands of supporters wearing red shirts and brandishing the flags of her opposition National League for Democracy party have spilled onto the streets in the hopes of catching a glimpse of her.

On Sunday, Suu Kyi’s popularity will be put to the test.

Myanmar is holding a landmark election that is expected to usher in its first democratic transition of power after more than half a century of military rule. If the vote is free and fair, Suu Kyi’s NLD party, campaigning on the promise of change, is expected to win by a landslide. But concerns about voter disenfranchisement, violence and the exploitation of religious nationalism have cast doubt over the credibility of the process. And whatever the outcome, the military will retain a dominant role in politics as it holds an effective veto over constitutional reform and is allotted 25 percent of seats in parliament.

Amid a mood of celebration in the country’s commercial capital, many are pinning their hopes on Suu Kyi. “She is educated, brave, and she has a lot of influence at the international level,” said Myo Myint Aung, a 55-year-old NLD supporter, speaking before a major Suu Kyi rally in Yangon last Sunday. “It is already 50 years under a dictatorship system, and nothing is changing. It is still a dirty system.”

Myanmar has been run by a cadre of army leaders since the country’s democratic leadership was ousted in a 1962 coup. The ruling military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, or USDP, came to power after a 2010 election that was boycotted by the NLD and widely discredited by the international community.

Since then President Thein Sein, a former general, has rebranded himself as a reformist by freeing thousands of political prisoners, loosening restrictions on the media and promoting free market reforms. His party is now campaigning on a platform of economic development and protecting the rights of the country’s majority Buddhist population. Estimates suggest the USDP could win 15 percent of seats, mostly in areas dominated by the military and civil servants, who in 2010 were forced to vote for the ruling party.

The U.S. government, which has lifted most economic and diplomatic sanctions on the former pariah state, views Sunday’s poll as a crucial test of the military’s commitment to democracy. U.S. diplomats have warned the ruling party that they will not turn a blind eye to foul play.

But the election campaign has been fraught with controversy. Earlier this year, the government stripped nearly 1 million people, most of them members of the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority, of their right to vote, citing concerns about their citizenship. The country’s election commission, whose chairman has publicly backed the USDP, later scrubbed nearly every Muslim politician from the candidate list. It also canceled voting in 608 village tracts, mostly in two states composed mainly of ethnic minorities, Shan and Kachin, ostensibly due to ongoing civil conflict. Up to 10 million people are estimated to have been excluded from the vote, including many migrant workers who were unable to register due to errors in voter lists. The government has blamed the problems on the election commission’s incompetence, not fraud.

“There’s no doubt that the exclusion of millions of voters … will be quite damaging to the poll,” said Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division. “The Myanmar government was well aware of the huge numbers of their citizens working outside the country and could have easily planned for a workable and inclusive absentee voting system — and it’s a damning commentary on the government and the [election commission] that they failed to do so.”

The NLD is fielding candidates in almost all of the nearly 1,200 constituencies up for grabs, a decision that angered the leaders of smaller ethnic-based parties who fear they will lose out. Given the army’s guaranteed seats, the party needs to win 67 percent of seats to gain an absolute majority in parliament and have a shot at electing the next president.

Yan Myo Thein predicts that Suu Kyi will seek to form a coalition government, bringing together the army, USDP and ethnic parties, even if her party wins an absolute majority. Because her late husband was British, she is constitutionally banned from running for president. But in comments on Thursday, Suu Kyi said that if the NLD is victorious, she would "be above the president." 

Many have been keen to temper expectations of the poll. The vote is unlikely to challenge the military’s key political and economic interests, including its veto over constitutional reform and multibillion dollar stakes in the country’s oil and mineral industries. Nor is the election expected to bring greater political power for Myanmar’s ethnic minorities.

“Just like all the previous elections, this election will not address key issues relating to ethnic rights and aspiration such as self-determination,” said Zoya Phan, an ethnic Karen activist and campaigns manager at Burma Campaign UK, an advocacy group. “Whoever wins the elections, the military still has ultimate control over Burma, guaranteed by the 2008 constitution. As a result, attacks and discrimination against ethnic minorities will continue.”

The army has escalated its offensive against ethnic minority rebels who refused to sign a controversial nationwide cease-fire agreement last month. Hundreds of political prisoners remain behind bars, and the police recently arrested three online activists for criticizing the military on Facebook.

“[The election] is a big turning point for our country, but at the same time it is just a very small step on our very long journey to democracy,” said Moe Thway, a veteran pro-democracy activist and spokesman for the National Youth Congress, a local election monitoring group that is dispatching more than 1,000 observers on Sunday. “As long as we cannot build peace among all the different ethnic groups and we cannot amend the constitution, [the election] is nothing. It is just a crazy game.”