Will Bibi’s speech deflate the Israel lobby?

WASHINGTON — Even before the first words of his speech before a joint meeting of the House and Senate have been uttered, it’s a foregone conclusion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fractured his already strained relationship with Barack Obama’s administration. Another major casualty of the speech, arranged with GOP House Speaker John Boehner without consulting the White House, may just be the unassailable influence of the pro-Israel lobby over U.S. lawmakers of both parties.

Unflinching support for Israel and its policies has been a feature of U.S. politics for a generation — a rare point of bipartisan consensus in an era of intense partisan polarization on domestic and foreign issues. With Netanhayu’s speech, that consensus is showing signs of wear.

Approximately 50 Democratic lawmakers have vowed to sit out Netanhayu’s speech on Tuesday morning, many of them members of the Congressional Black Caucus who say that the address is a major breach of diplomatic protocol and an insult to the president.

The speech comes at a crucial time as Netanyahu and the flagship pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), seek to persuade lawmakers to scuttle the nuclear deal being negotiated between Iran and world powers. AIPAC is urging support for legislation that would require congressional approval for the deal, and would impose  a final deal and impose further economic sanctions if negotiators fail to reach agreement.

Paradoxically, some say Netanyahu’s move to rally Congress behind his cause might have weakened his supporters' hand on Capitol Hill. 

“If Netanyahu’s aim was to persuade Democrats to support his position on Iran, he has chosen the wrong way to do it,” said Alan Elsener, a spokesman for J Street, a liberal Jewish advocacy group in Washington that has urged the Israeli leader to cancel the speech. “If you want to persuade someone of your case, you don’t spit in their eye before you do it.”

Sens. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Richard Durbin, D-Ill., also reportedly wrote to Netanyahu last week, expressing concern that the speech would throw a partisan wrench into U.S. support for Israel.

"This unprecedented move threatens to undermine the important bipartisan approach towards Israel — which, as long-standing supporters of Israel, troubles us deeply," Durbin and Feinstein wrote. “It sacrifices deep and well-established cooperation on Israel for short-term partisan points — something that should never be done with Israeli security and which we fear could have lasting repercussions.”

Even while Netanyahu’s government has drawn condemnation from the international community on issues ranging from new Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories to its 50-day military assault on Gaza last summer, none of that disrupted Israel’s support in the United States as much as the political controversy over the speech, scheduled two weeks before Netanyahu seeks reelection to an unprecedented fourth term as prime minister, has done.

“This is something that is so blatant and something that is so outside the bounds of what is normal, on an item that not only the president has said is an important one for this administration, but an item that the majority of Americans believe has significant implications for U.S. security," said Matt Duss, president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace. "That has encouraged and empowered Democrats to say ‘Enough.’”

Duss noted that many Democrats are unhappy with U.S. support of certain Israeli policies, with 51 percent saying in a July 2014 CNN/ORC poll that Israel used excessive force in last summer's war in Gaza. (In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey last week, 66 percent of Democrats said it was wrong for Republicans to invite Netanyahu without first notifying Obama.) Some Democratic lawmakers may begin to echo those views.

“I do think we’re going to see much more of a debate on the nature of U.S. support for Israel,” Duss said. “Ironically, Netanyahu has helped get that debate going.”

Alon Pinkas, a former top political adviser to two Israeli prime ministers, said it was too early to tell how long  the bad blood between Democratic lawmakers and Netanyahu will last, if he remains prime minister. But he has taken a gamble by aligning himself squarely with Republicans.  

"For several years, Mr. Netanyahu has been trying not only to align himself but the entire Israeli agenda with Republicanism," Pinkas said. "But he’s not a Republican senator. He’s the prime minister of Israel."

At the annual AIPAC policy conference in Washington Monday, officials and legislators tried to project unity and calm, suggesting that reports of the breach had been exaggerated.

“You’re here to tell the world that reports of the demise of the U.S. Israeli relationship is not only premature. They’re just wrong,” Netanyahu told attendees.  “You’re here to tell the world that our alliance is stronger than ever.”

House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer appeared on stage with Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy to stress that nothing had changed.

“Democrats and Republicans don’t always agree, but when it comes to the safety and security of Israel, we will stand together,” Hoyer said. 

But Netanyahu — and Obama — are testing that unity in a rupture that is not just about protocol but is essentially a split over which Iran strategy most effectively protects Israel’s security.