Kerry arrives in Russia for first visit since Ukraine crisis

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Russia on Tuesday, his first time in the country in two years and the first cabinet-level meeting by a U.S. official since the start of the conflict in Ukraine last year. His brief visit and meeting, which is set to include Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be a rare forum for diplomacy between the two countries, whose relations have plummeted to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War.

According to a preview of the meeting put out by the State Department, leading the agenda will be the Syrian civil war, the Iran nuclear negotiations and the continuing violence in Ukraine. “This is part of our ongoing effort to maintain open lines of communication on these issues where we agree and where we disagree,” State Department spokesperson Marie Harf said on Monday.

But the diplomatic effort will be an uphill battle. The frosty relationship between the two was underscored over the weekend by the absence of of most Western representatives, including American ones, from commemorations for the 70^th anniversary of end of the European portion of World War II. 

The U.S. continues to blame Russia for the crisis in Ukraine, due to its annexation of Crimea last year and its ongoing military support for pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists, a claim that Russia officially denies.

But ahead of Kerry’s arrival, Moscow made it clear that it holds the U.S. responsible for the conflict, which has killed more than 6,000 people since in began last April, according to the United Nations.

“Barack Obama's administration chose a path to cut back bilateral ties, proclaimed policy toward ‘isolating’ our country at the international scene and demanded support to its confrontational steps from countries who traditionally follow Washington's track,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Several rounds of U.S. sanctions on Russian officials, as well as logistical support and training efforts for Ukrainian forces have nonetheless drawn sharp admonitions from Moscow. And last month, nearly 300 U.S. troops arrived in Ukraine to begin training exercises aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s national guard forces, a move Russia decried as aggression.

While progress on Ukraine remains an unlikely proposition, at least for now, Kerry’s diplomatic efforts on Tuesday could bear some fruit in other areas, particularly Syria and Iran.

While not quite the source of contention that Ukraine presents for U.S.-Russian relations, the Syrian conflict — which has killed more than 220,000 people and is now in its 5^th year — finds each country backing different sides. While the U.S. supports members of the so-called moderate Syrian opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has steadfastly backed the government since the conflict began in 2011.

Analysts believe that a significant change on the Syria battlefield that would bring about an end to the war is unlikely without more pressure from outside powers. Kerry’s meeting is likely to bear that fact in mind.

“It is high time for state backers on each side to recognize that their adversaries are not headed toward capitulation, and to begin the difficult work of outlining an ultimate geopolitical resolution to end the war,” said Noah Bonsey, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

While progress on Syria has been halting, the two sides have found some common ground on Syria before: a previous meeting between Kerry and Putin helped pave the way for Russian-hosted peace talks in 2014. Those efforts ultimately faltered after representatives for Syrian rebels and the government refused to agree on the terms of a solution that would have Assad step down in exchange for an end to the fighting.

But experts believe that Kerry’s Tuesday meeting could be a sign that the two sides are have made some progress. “It may be a small glimmer, but it’s the basis to have a small conversation, and I do believe that Russians have been pressuring the Assad regime to allow some sort of power sharing,” Salman Shaikh, a Middle East expert with the Brookings Institution, told Voice of America.

There is more common ground between the two countries on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have remained in close contact during the course of those negotiations, which last month produced an agreement between Iran and six world powers on a framework to conclude a final agreement by June 30. Tuesday’s meeting will likely give the two sides a chance to hammer out diplomatic strategies to close a deal.

But on Iran, too, the U.S. and Russia have at times clashed. Russia’s decision last month to lift a five-year old ban on the delivery of a defensive air missile system to Tehran drew a pointed scolding from Washington.

While sharing a desire with Washington for a final agreement that would place limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, Russia still has closer ties with Tehran, and seems intent already to start putting itself more directly to reap the gains from an agreement that would reduce Iran’s international pariah status.

Cliff Kupchan, a foreign policy analyst with the Eurasia Group, said Russia’s decision to lift that ban should be seen in that light, and was “likely intended to pressure the west in nuclear talks, position Russia for trade with Iran, and poke a finger in Washington’s eye.”

With wire services