Crowded 2016 GOP field makes for ‘elbows and knees’ competition

Libertarian? Fiscal conservative? National security hawk? Social-values crusader?  

Chances are that if you are a GOP primary voter, the 2016 Republican presidential field has something for you.

With former Texas Gov. Rick Perry slated to announce his second go for the presidency on Thursday, there are now 10 Republican contenders who have declared their White House ambitions and five others who are all but assured of launching their campaigns this summer.

Even the non-candidate candidates acknowledge that the abundance of options presented to GOP primary and caucus voters will make for a lively, fierce competition. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who despite wooing high-dollar donations for his Right to Rise super PAC, giving policy speeches, and hobnobbing with Iowa and New Hampshire voters has still not officially declared his candidacy in what is widely seen as a ploy to avoid campaign finance laws, commented on what is certain to be a chaotic affair.

“We have, what, 75 people running?” he said at an event in Orlando, Florida, on Tuesday. “I didn’t check to see how many people said they’re running today. It’s a big field and will be competitive. There will be some elbows and knees under the board. This isn’t tiddlywinks.”

Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College and a former GOP congressional aide, said the wide open field will likely intensify the candidate’s hunt for a limited pool of campaign cash and the attention needed to break through to voters and consolidate support.

“You simply cannot try to compete without a substantial amount of money either directly in your campaign account or through an affiliated super PAC—without that, a campaign is not going to go anywhere,” he said. “Second, you need a way of capturing public attention.”

Major television networks also announced last month that they would only allow the top 10 GOP candidates, as measured by national polls, to compete in the Republican debates, adding more pressure on bottom-tier candidates to get their numbers up.

Pitney noted that many of the candidates at this stage have tried to develop unique policy selling points to differentiate themselves from the rest of the field.  

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who launched his campaign last week, has billed himself as the national security candidate, appealing to the GOP voters who advocate for a more robust role for the United States on the world stage and sharply critiquing President Obama’s foreign policy. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has played up his youth and immigrant background as a contrast to the dynastic runs of Bush and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has staked out his spot as a staunch civil libertarian, fundraising off of his stand in the Senate against the NSA’s surveillance powers last week. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz have cast themselves as the last line of defense for traditional socially conservative values and against same-sex marriage. 

Still, the latest polls demonstrate the difficulty of standing out in a bloated field. According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released this week, no candidate has secured more than 13 percent of the vote among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

Donors also appear to be reluctant to throw all of their money behind a single candidate before a consensus favorite emerges, according to multiple reports.

"Normally, there's a candidate that the entire establishment is behind and there's this huge fundraising juggernaut for one person," said Jon Fleischman, a California GOP official told the Los Angeles Times in May. “This year, no one has the brass ring already in hand. We're seeing a lot more listening and a lot less giving early."

Pitney, nonetheless, said on balance the abundance of choices for GOP voters was a positive development.

“It shows there’s a lot of energy and optimism on the Republican side, it gives people the opportunity to pick and choose. Whoever emerges from those options will have the advantage that he or she didn’t cram the nomination down anyone’s throats,” he said. “The winner will have to earn it this time.”