In Nevada fight, undercard is the main event

Most years and in most states, the lieutenant governor’s race garners little attention and is of modest long-term consequence. This fall’s contest in Nevada, however, has the potential to influence not just the Silver State’s future but also that of the most powerful Democrat in the U.S. Senate, too.

Should Democrat Lucy Flores, a state representative, beat Republican Mark Hutchison, a state senator, it significantly diminishes the chance that the wildly popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval will run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2016. But if Hutchison wins, Sandoval would feel far more comfortable trying to unseat Reid knowing that he’d be keeping the governor’s mansion in Republican hands.

That’s quite a lot of importance for a job that, in recent years, has been filled by a former lounge singer and an eccentric neurosurgeon known best for a collection of Americana memorabilia so huge his neighbors have complained to the county commission about the eyesore.

“There’s never been a lieutenant governor’s race quite like this in Nevada, at least not since the 1980s,” said Ray Hagar, longtime political reporter and blogger for the Reno Gazette-Journal. “It’s really not a lieutenant governor’s race. It’s a proxy war between Gov. Sandoval and Harry Reid.”

Reid, who could lose control of the Senate this fall but would likely remain the Democrats’ leader nonetheless, hasn’t said whether he’ll seek a sixth term.  He’d be 77 by the time he began that term, and both he and his wife have suffered some health setbacks.

Sandoval is running this year for a second term, but he’s so popular that the Democratic nominee is a perennial candidate who isn’t actively campaigning and was actually beaten in the primary by “none of the above.”

The governor insists on the campaign trail that he intends to complete his second term, but he also has a history of leaving offices for better gigs. In 1998, he left the state assembly for a seat on the Nevada Gaming Commission board. In 2005, Sandoval quit his post as attorney general for a lifetime appointment as a federal judge, but, in 2009, he resigned to run for governor. Even if he doesn’t challenge Reid, he’s a ripe prospect for a cabinet post, should the Republicans retake the White House. (Sandoval has long been the subject of vice-presidential chatter, but he’s pro-choice and has approved or supported some tax increases, tainting him in the eyes of many conservative Republicans, said Chuck Muth, a former executive director of the Nevada GOP.)

Either way, Reid and Sandoval’s fingerprints are all over the race for the state’s No. 2 post. Sandoval, breaking Nevada GOP tradition, endorsed Hutchison, 51, in the primary and has appeared with him in person and in advertising. Reid recruited Flores, a 34-year-old former gang member who put herself through law school, in an effort to appeal to the state’s growing Hispanic population.

Without a serious governor’s race in Nevada, the top of the ticket is, for all intents and purposes, the lieutenant governor’s duel – and national Democrats, beckoned by Reid, are treating it like it matters. This past weekend, for instance, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who has hinted about running for president, stumped in Las Vegas for Flores.

“Hutchison is now clearly running in the shadow — or with the help of — Brian Sandoval, and Lucy Flores is a rising star in the Democratic Party,” said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada at Reno. “In a normal situation, it probably would be too early for her to run for statewide office. She’s only been in the Legislature for four years. But she has a lot of attributes – she’s Latina, a lawyer, came out of a gang background, has a compelling personal story. But she’s getting no help at the top of the ticket. Flores is the leader of the Democratic side. That’s a lot to put on a fairly young, fairly new candidate.”

So far, none of the Nevada media have polled on the race, and Herzik said neither campaign has leaked internal poll data, if they have any. The sense is Sandoval’s blessing will carry Hutchison into office, particularly given the absence of any bigger, flashier races to drive voter turnout. Reid, who assembled one of the nation’s most impressive Get Out The Vote machines, may have a hard time snapping it into action for something as seemingly dreary as the lieutenant governor’s race.

“Its’ going to be much more difficult to get Democrats to the polls even with the Reid machine just because this is the most boring election in the history of Nevada,” Hagar said.