Sweetened tea flavors Texas election

Anti-incumbency: To say that Hall and Dewhurst were familiar faces would be an understatement. Hall has been a member of Congress since the Carter administration; Dewhurst has been the lieutenant governor since 2003, and before that was Texas land commissioner. Though races will always have issues — support for in-state tuition for the children of undocumented immigrants played a part in Dewhurst’s loss, for instance — it would be crazy not to see a broader dissatisfaction at work here. There is a fine line between being for change and against whatever is happening now, and at a time where the reported economic recovery has left so many behind, it is easy to see a lot of voters just wanting to “throw the bums out.” It might look like a victory for the insurgency, which at this point is often considered to be tea party-friendly, but it is possible it is more just a gainsaying of current slate.

Turnout: Run-off elections are traditionally low-turnout elections. Swinging a few votes here or there can make a difference, but the biggest factor in such contests is simply the ability to turn out hardcore supporters. There has long been a small-but-committed base in the GOP who just flat-out vote in every election. They are always among the most conservative voters in the Republican column. That alone might give the advantage to the candidates perceived to be on the right, but given the added motivation of being able to cast out old faces, the challengers had a much easier task this time of getting their supporters to the polls.

Better campaigns: It might sound like a simple point, but in the cases of Ratcliffe and Patrick, the better campaigns won. Ralph Hall was famous (or infamous) for his love of old-fashioned campaign tactics — mass mailings, public appearances, door knocks and handshakes. The 48-year-old Ratcliffe’s team made much of their 21^st Century analytics used to better target supporters. In the Lt. Governor’s race, Dewhurst was dogged by a series of missteps, which included damaging blowback from a supporter publicizing records regarding Patrick’s prior treatment for depression, and an ad released by the Dewhurst campaign cut to the tune of Disney song that invited a slew of parody reply videos online.

Money, money, money: There is support and there is support. Rep. Hall actually had the backing of tea party-headliner Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a strong voice on the Christian right. But Ratcliffe had the conservative anti-tax juggernaut Club for Growth in his corner, and the club brought its wallet. Club members contributed more than $128,000 to Ratcliffe, with the affiliated super PAC spending an additional $50,000 on campaign mailers … um, make that mailed material supportive of the Ratcliffe campaign (campaign spending has rules, dontcha know).

Dewhurst actually outspent Patrick in the lieutenant governor race, $12 million to $9 million, but Dewhurst’s kitty included $5 million of his own fortune. Patrick lent his campaign over a million, himself, but if you do the math, it turns out Patrick was the better fundraiser against a candidate that had all the traditional advantages of incumbency.

It all makes for interesting campaign analysis (it must if you’ve read this far, right?), but does it speak to state of the Republican Party or the electorate writ large?

An examination of the factors above without the ideological baggage would likely say that well-financed candidates with better-organized campaigns beat long-serving incumbents in a midterm year. It would show that motivated core voters swung a low-turnout election. Conservative candidates won the conservative party’s nominations in a fairly conservative state. It doesn’t read like a game changer.

Ratcliffe will stand without Democratic opposition in November — which is kind of a sad commentary on Texas politics, but also not exactly news. In the statewide race for lieutenant governor, however, Democrats are excited by Tuesday’s results.

Leticia Van de Putte, a popular Dem State Senator from San Antonio, will be Patrick’s November opponent, and has worked hard to paint this race as one of Republican overreach. Patrick is virulently anti-immigration, vowing to seal Texas’s border with Mexico, which does not sit well with the state’s large and growing Hispanic community. And Patrick’s anti-tax, anti-social services rhetoric could scare big city voters in a state with multiple big cities. Van de Putte is a moderate who has made veterans’ issues a key point in her campaign.

While Patrick would still be the odds-on favorite in November — this is Texas, after all — Democrats are hoping a ballot with two women at the top (Wendy Davis is running for governor) might give the folks looking to tell a story about change something to actually write about.