Chile will give Brazil its first real test, and could spoil FIFA's party

There’s no question what outcome FIFA wants when Brazil faces Chile on Saturday in Belo Horizonte: Officials of soccer’s world governing body left no doubt, in South Africa in 2010, that they believe the atmosphere of a World Cup tournament is depleted by the premature elimination of the host nation. In the case of Brazil’s fanatical futebol public, the expectation will be nothing less than the Selecao winning the whole thing, meaning that elimination any time before the final game will put a tremendous damper on the festive atmosphere surrounding the event.

No question, then, that FIFA’s staging requirements need Brazil to get past Chile on Saturday. And given some of the dubious refereeing calls that went Brazil’s way in the group stage, it’s no surprise that Chilean players and coaching officials have expressed concerns that Saturday’s ref, Englishman Howard Webb, will also favor the home team. (Fans of English Premiership teams visiting Manchester United’s Old Trafford ground have for years grumbled the same thing, not necessarily with any merit.) Needless to add, Brazil has dismissed these statements as the Chileans trying to bend the ref to their cause (which, of course, it could well be). 

Watching Brazil’s performance in its group matches, FIFA has reason to be nervous. The Selecao have looked unconvincing and anxious, with little attacking rhythm, sometimes brittle defending and a goalkeeper who couldn’t get a game at English second tier club Queens Park Rangers who looks a little shaky under pressure. This is a Brazil side whose attacking ability appears to rest largely on the striker Neymar playing a free role, raiding right back Dani Alves, and midfield schemer Oscar. Fellow forwards Fred and Hulk have looked sub-standard, and most of the midfield has been characterized more by energy and athleticism than by guile and imagination – which is why Alves raids from the back are so important. But Neymar has been known to drift in and out of games; Oscar looks a little jaded after a long European season; and Alves leaves his defense vulnerable when bombing forward -- an added peril against the speedy Chileans who love to attack the flanks. Brazil’s defense and midfield have relied on grit and a physical ruggedness quite at odds with the nation's (admittedly idealized) footballing legend.

The frustration Brazil faced against Mexico’s hard running well organized unit could come back to haunt them again. In Chile, they face another potential bogey side – one that coach Luis Felipe Scolari said before the tournament that he’d most prefer to avoid en route to the final. While the Brazilians have looked unconvincing, Chile were a revelation against Spain. Los Rojos are likely to test Brazil as no other opponent has thus far.

Coach Jorge Sampaoli is a disciple of the attacking football philosophy of the legendary Chile coach Marcelo Bielsa, and his team have produced the sort of high-energy attacking game that made Bielsa’s Chile – and his Athletic Bilbao side – such a joy to watch. Chile have torn into opponents in Brazil, giving them little time to settle and overwhelming their defenses with the speed, passing and unpredictable movement of Barcelona striker Alexis Sanchez, Valencia forward Eduardo Sanchez, the little-known Charles Aranguiz who has emerged as a key man at this tournament, and Juventus playmaker Arturo Vidal.

Chile’s defense has its flaws – the 2-0 defeat to Holland showed its vulnerability to being caught on the counterattack -- and Gary Medel, nicknamed “Pitbull” for obvious reasons, may not make it back from injury. Still, its midfield has the energy and drive to overwhelm Brazil’s, and Los Rojos’ emphatic 2-0 victory over Spain that sent the reigning champions home should be sufficient warning that Chile is going to subject Brazil’s World Cup credentials to a vigorous interrogation. 

And if the game’s trickster deities are in effect, FIFA’s best-laid plans for building home-country fever to a crescendo could be spoiled in Belo Horizonte. No question, this is the pick of the Round of 16 games.