Why losing Neymar doesn't spell doom for Brazil

That Neymar is a special player, there can be no doubt, and Brazil will certainly miss his explosive talents and ability to conjure chances out of nothing when the Selecao face Germany on Tuesday. But it’s only in the language of advertisers and TV preview-hype that Neymar’s loss to a fractured vertebrae courtesy of a knee in the back from Colombia’s Juan Zuniga sounds the death knell on Brazil’s World Cup prospects. Still, even many of the pundits concur, particularly when combined with the yellow-card suspension that precludes captain and center-back Thiago Silva – who scored Brazil’s opening goal against Colombia – from lining up against the Germans.

The idea that Brazil can’t get  past Germany – you know, the same Germany that was taken to 120 minutes by Algeria – without these two players is, frankly, ridiculous. Thiago is an excellent centerback, but so is Dante, who’ll likely replace him. Indeed, were the Bayern Munich man German rather than Brazilian, he might well have been picked for Germany ahead of his club teammate Jerome Boateng. Dante would walk into the starting lineup of Holland, Argentina and probably Germany, too. He’s a more than adequate replacement for Thiago Silva, particularly against a team that that either doesn’t play a center-forward, or else plays the relatively harmless Miroslav Klose in the role.

Neymar, of course, is irreplaceable – there’s no other single player in the Brazil squad who can bring quite the same combination of game-changing skill, speed and imagination to the game. But if this Brazil World Cup team has seemed like a one-man show, that’s only because of the largely functional win-ugly manner in which coach Felipe Scolari has set out his store.  Neymar is the only player who has been given the license to create, playing a free number 10 role behind Fred, a striker so static and inept that he looks like a suburban soccer enthusiast who won his place in the team in a lottery.

Oscar, one of the most talented and creative number 10s currently playing in Europe has been largely shackled to patrolling the right-hand touchline and has been largely anonymous at the World Cup in a midfield centered on the defensive qualities of Luis Gustavo, Paulinho and Fernandinho. Chelsea’s attacking midfielder Willian, whose explosive speed and goal threat is coupled with a Jose Mourinho-required work rate, has scarcely been seen; nor has Bernard, the tricky winger from Shaktar Donetsk who like Neymar is anything but predictable.

So, Scolari could make a simple switch like bringing Oscar into the Number 10 spot and fielding Willian out wide. But he could also gamble on Bernard, dispense with Fred and consider a way of creating a more mobile and less predictable attacking trident to get more out of Hulk. It would help to have Dani Alves back in his raiding right back role (he was dropped for the more defensive option of Maicon for the Colombia game) but that’s obviously a risk against the mobile Germans.

Germany typically isn’t starting with a striker because this generation of German players hasn’t produced a standout center-forward, and is instead relying on the mobility and speed of goal-scoring attacking midfielders. Scolari, now, is forced to work with what he has.  And he could deploy enough firepower to get past Germany  by shuffling his deck, freeing Oscar and adding Willian to the mix – and making other tactical tweaks.

But the real difference, now, may be that the absence of Neymar forces Brazil to try and beat opponents in open play, rather than relying on the pace and trickery of the star man to win free kicks – and convert them. Both of Brazil’s goals against Colombia were scored by centerbacks at set-pieces, Luiz’s a sublimely struck free kick, Thiago bundling home off his knee from a corner. A similar goal by Luiz from a corner was the sum total against Chile. Even with Neymar in the team, the Selecao have been unconvincing. His absence will force Brazil to be less predictable, and to alter their tactics. Ironically, perhaps, that could help them win the tournament.