Moody’s predicts Democratic win in 2016

Moody’s Analytics is predicting that in 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee will edge out the Republican nominee by just two electoral votes, 270 to 268. Moody’s has been using the same forecast model since 1980 and has accurately predicted every presidential election since. The model makes its prediction on the basis of the economy, factoring in the political leanings of states that stay solidly red or blue in every election. The most important economic variable in the model is income growth in the two years leading up to the election. And household incomes have been edging up. But wage growth has been weak this year, the job market is not producing enough high-paying jobs, and consumers are feeling less secure. Could this be the election that snaps Moody’s winning streak? Ali Velshi speaks with Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s and a co-author of its election forecast.