What’s Putin’s goal in Ukraine?

European officials met in London on Tuesday to discuss sanctions against Russia for its troops’ taking over Crimea. The sanctions could include travel bans and freezing the assets of individual Russians. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said sanctions could be imposed as early as next week. If Russia eases tensions, he said the sanctions would be put on hold.

As Russian troops remain firmly in control of Crimea, there are no signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin will bow to economic or diplomatic pressure from the West.

What is Putin’s thinking?

What’s his ultimate goal?

How will the U.S. and European allies treat Putin in the long term?

We asked two experts for the Inside Story.

Inside Story: What is Putin thinking?

Molly McKew: I think that Putin has been testing areas around the periphery of Russia for a while. He has seen a low stomach in the international political environment for responses to that kind of behavior. Based on his experience in Georgia in 2008, he believes he can get away with it. He believes that a strong Russia is an expansionist Russia.

What lessons has the West drawn from Georgia in 2008?

I don’t think we have. Those of us working on Georgia over the past five years have been very focused on this. That’s why we have been making noise about it. Russia has not lived up to the terms of the cease-fire agreement, and they have continued to expand into Georgia a few meters at a time, every time they get a chance. There has been almost no reaction to this particular annexation question beyond statements.

Putin’s reward for invading Georgia was, de facto, the reset. It wiped out what may have been a more assertive response to Russian aggression in the region. Georgia was removed from the top of the U.S. agenda with Russia at that point and made a secondary issue. So Putin understands that this behavior doesn’t cost him much because right now, nobody wants to push back.

What is Putin’s strategy?

Kathryn Stoner: I think it was impulsive and opportunistic. He willfully accepted bad information. The only people who have died are Ukrainians. In terms of thinking about ramifications of Western trade ties, I don’t think he thought that through ... He made it impulsively, and now he is stuck. Some of my colleagues in Russia truly believe that Russia is doing this to protect its interests.

What end would he be satisfied with?

I think he is getting himself into a corner. Either he is going to own Crimea or have it have an autonomous status. The big problem that he must extricate himself from not accepting a legitimate Kiev government. They cannot put [ousted President Viktor] Yanukovich back in, but they do not want to turn Ukraine over to a new Ukrainian government that will join the European Union and take International Monetary Fund loans. He will lose Ukraine as a central ally. He is creating an enemy — another reason to think he has not thought this through.

Has the West misread Putin?

I think that we may have underestimated degree to which he is very intent on re-establishing Russia and having it recognized as a great power. The willingness to put troops on the ground in Ukraine — he got away with it in Georgia, so we know he is willing. He can be very intransigent. He has a mission to restore Russia to great power status.

He does have some legitimate grievances with the West and some wild misperceptions. NATO has expanded right up to his borders and natural sphere of influence. He infamously asked if he could join in 2000, 2001. We had missiles in [the] Czech [Republic] and Poland ... They perceived us as exceeding the U.N. mandate in Libya. They think we fomented the Arab Spring. In the Iraq War, we have been far too aggressive, dancing in the end zone ... The bombing of Kosovo upset them. They are using that as a justification here. Of course, they fail to  acknowledge that we helped them get into [the World Trade Organization], for example.