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Cold War relic falls as US and Cuba set to open embassies

Analysis: ‘New chapter’ in relations marks a wider US reconciliation with Latin America after years of complacency

President Barack Obama on Wednesday leveled one of the world’s last Cold War relics — one that stood for 54 years — when he announced that the United States and Cuba will reopen their embassies in each other’s countries, allowing Cuban officials to raise their flag on July 20 in front of the colonial revival mansion in Washington that currently houses Havana’s de facto mission in the U.S.

With the president’s announcement, the U.S. becomes the last country in the Western Hemisphere to extend a diplomatic hand to Cuba after Fidel Castro swept into power on Jan. 1, 1959. The move solidifies a shift that brings U.S. policy in line with the rest of the Americas and much of the world. The Organization of American States, an intercontinental entity that promotes regional solidarity, lifted its suspension of Cuba in 2009, a year after the European Union re-established ties. The United Nations has been calling for the U.S. to end its economic embargo of Cuba for the last 23 years.

Repeated U.S. military interventions and an economic stranglehold on the island in the early 20th century created a widespread impression that nothing occurred in Cuba without U.S. approval. This in turn fed a strident anti-Americanism that — more so than ideology — catapulted Castro to power in 1959 and fueled his revolution through his disastrous economic policies of the 1960s and ’70s, along with the suppression of political dissent.

Washington’s repeated failed attempts to assassinate him and his regime’s thwarting of the 1961 CIA-led invasion at Cuba’s Bay of Pigs were great sources of pride for the former leader and won him admiration throughout Latin American and much of the global south.

“We are left with the honor of being one of the few adversaries of the United States,” Castro told NBC News in 1988.

Obama’s reconciliation with Cuba’s current President Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro’s brother, is part of a wider rapprochement with Latin America. The region has repeatedly called for normalized relations between the Cold War foes. And its leaders from various political camps have long resented U.S. intervention — not only in Cuba but also in Guatemala, Chile and Nicaragua, among others — which has fueled fervent strains of nationalism throughout the region.

“The days in which our agenda in this hemisphere so often presumed that the United States could meddle with impunity — those days are past,” Obama said in April during a Summit of the Americas meeting in Panama.

But the “new chapter” in U.S.-Cuba relations, as Obama categorized the opening of embassies, may be spurred more by convenience than by apostasy: an effort to restore waning influence after years of complacency as China and Russia continue to make inroads in the region.

China has emerged as a mayor economic player in Latin America, with trade soaring to $261 billion in 2013, from $12 billion in 2000. The Asian superpower has matched increased trade with infrastructure projects, which analysts say are underpinned by geopolitical motives. The projects include an estimated $10 billion railroad link with Peru and Brazil that would connect the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and a $50 billion canal project in Nicaragua.

Cuba has also embraced Russia in recent years. During a Latin America tour a year ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin made Cuba his first stop — a gesture that likely stirred Cold War ghosts in Washington and echoed the Soviet Union’s goodwill with Cuba after Dwight Eisenhower banned U.S. exports to the island in October 1960, effectively launching the economic embargo that is in effect today.

After signing several oil and security contracts with Havana, Putin praised the decision to forgive 90 percent of Cuba’s $35 billion debt to Russia. He also lauded the region for its political independence and scolded the U.S. over the embargo. 

Barriers ahead

Although Congress has 15 days to weigh Obama’s announcement, there is little lawmakers can do to keep the administration from upgrading the current U.S. interests section — a de facto mission in Havana — to an official embassy. That’s because the administration is unlikely to request money for an upgrade. Any improvement to the embassy that requires funding would need congressional approval, and with Republicans controlling the House and Senate, that would likely prove a tough task.

Naming a U.S. ambassador to Cuba also represents a big hurdle. Ambassadors require Senate approval, and two Republican senators, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, have already vowed to block any Obama nominee for the post.

But the biggest barrier to normalized relations remains the 54-year-old embargo, the lifting of which would also require congressional approval. Although Obama has chipped away at the restrictions, the embargo’s backbone remains in place: U.S. companies doing business with Cuba still face bureaucratic hurdles and sanctions. Trade and travel restraints remain in place, and Cuban businesses may not invest in the U.S.

Obama on Wednesday called for Congress to lift the embargo, but that is unlikely to happen during his tenure. Still, there are signs that the GOP is increasingly receptive to shifting public opinion on Cuba, highlighted by a younger generation of Cuban-Americans who are warming to the idea of normalized ties.

“It’s long past time for U.S. policy toward Cuba to be associated with something other than five decades of failure,” Sen. Jeff Flake, R- Ariz., said Tuesday after news of the embassy openings was leaked to the media. “It is difficult to overstate the importance of resuming diplomatic relations with Cuba, in furthering our own national interests, benefiting our relations in the region and encouraging a positive future for the Cuban people.”

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