Money, ‘moderation’ mostly make for predictable primary
With the exception of Mississippi, where the race for the GOP Senate nomination is still too close to call, and likely headed for a run-off in three weeks, the rest of establishment Republican America went to bed feeling pretty good Tuesday. The national party had put its money and its proxies in place early, and for the most part seemed to keep designated tea party insurgent candidates at bay, even if they couldn’t divert the rightward drift of the rhetoric.
Republicans were hoping to avoid unpolished or gaff-prone nominees — like Todd Aiken and Christine O’Donnell, whom GOP analysts believe cost them chances for Senate pick-ups in recent years — and that was mostly what happened across this week’s eight primary states.
The hitch could be Mississippi, where six-term incumbent Senator Thad Cochran ran a lackluster campaign and was unable to vanquish upstart Chris McDaniel, who has had to dodge accusations of being friendly to neo-Confederate groups and now has a bit of a scandal on his hands with supporters who allegedly snuck into a nursing home to videotape Cochran’s ailing wife. With provisional ballots still to be counted, McDaniel actually has a slight lead, though neither candidate looks like he will top the 50 percent needed to avoid a June 24 run-off election. Local poll watchers wonder if Cochran has another three weeks of campaigning in him, and the even lower turnout special election would likely favor McDaniel’s appeal to a dedicated, rightwing core voter.
This immoderation has Mississippi Democrats moderately exited. Former Rep. Travis Childress is a well-known name in the state, and with his nomination wrapped up, he can start campaigning for November while Cochran and McDaniel continue beat each other up and tilt to the right in order to win over those run-off voters. Still, this is Mississippi, where a Democrat has not held statewide office in decades — it will likely take more than one bad debate performance or TV ad to sink the GOP.
Indeed, analysts often focus on the relative merits of the candidates while ignoring the importance of a strong party infrastructure. Except during a few years when the “50-state strategy” of former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean pumped some money into “red” states, Mississippi Democrats have had to fend for themselves. So, despite the GOP run-off, it is likely Childress will have an uphill climb.
In California, it is Republicans that have a party to rebuild, and that state’s GOP feels they made a step in that direction by choosing “$700 million man” Neel Kashkari over “Minuteman” Tim Donnelly for the November governor’s race. Kashkari previously managed the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bank bailout, and had deep pockets and the strong backing of Republican bold-faced names. Donnelly was a former self-appointed border guard who said stemming immigration was tantamount to war.
Kashkari’s chances of unseating umpteen-term incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown are slim, but California Republicans are happy not to have a guy like Donnelly at the top of the ticket mouthing anti-Hispanic rhetoric for the next five months.
The GOP feels good about Joni Ernst, their choice in Iowa, too. Ernst handily avoided a run-off for the Senate nomination with strong establishment endorsements and a folksy campaign ad about castrating pigs. Ernst will square off against Democrat Bruce Braley — who had a gaff of his own in the primary — to replace retiring Democrat Tom Harkin, and the Republicans like their chances.
Veteran GOP hands also scored victories in Senate primaries in South Dakota and Montana, two other states where the long-serving Democratic Senator is not in the November race.
The Democratic establishment also has something to cheer this morning. In the race for CA-17, seven-term incumbentRep. Mike Honda polled ahead of former Obama Commerce official Ro Khanna in this majority-Asian, Silicon Valley Congressional District. Honda had the support of the president, the AFL-CIO, the Sierra Club and Planned Parenthood, but Khanna raised big money from tech bigwigs like Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt, Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg, PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and Napster co-founder Sean Parker.
Khanna had argued that the district needed younger, more tech-friendly (read: business-friendly) representation, but the challenger ran into trouble when backers were found to be recruiting and funding GOP candidates to split the votein this non-partisan “jungle” primary. By splitting the Republican vote, Khanna had a better chance to advance to November as one of the top-two finishers in June.
And despite the mild scandal (or because of what that scandal bought), Khanna did just that and will face Honda again in November. Having done well this round, however, and with the national party strongly in his corner, Honda is the heavy favorite.
But for Republicans, the establishment’s hold on power is a little more tenuous. Yes, candidates with backing from recent GOP “stars” like Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush mostly triumphed on Tuesday, but they mostly did so with positions and promises that could have come from many of their insurgent-backed rivals.
And the backing is key. Though the tea party (or parties) might grab most of the headlines, it is the big money behind so-called movement conservatives that has more often grabbed the votes. As in previous weeks, the Club for Growth made its presence felt (most notably in Mississippi, but also in other races where it saw fit to get involved). If this continues, look for more “established” candidates to appeal to the Club’s virulent anti-tax, anti-government proclivities.
Which will make actual governing difficult should this version of the establishment continue to win in November — but governing never feels as good as winning.
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