The new Congress and its agenda

There is a new Congress in Washington, and that means new jobs for 58 representatives and 13 senators.

It is the first time in decades the Republicans have had this strong of a majority in Congress. All but one of the new senators sworn in Tuesday were members of the GOP.

The first item on the docket is the Keystone XL pipeline. House and Senate Republicans are set on passing the proposed project, which failed to advance in the Democratic-controlled Senate last year.

Congress will take on other contentious issues soon after that, including attempts to revise the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s executive action on immigration and the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba.

For his part, Obama has signaled his openness to tax reform.

Expectations for the new Congress are high. But it remains to be seen whether Obama, the newly Republican-controlled Senate and a more robustly Republican House can find common ground.

We consulted our on-air panel of guests for the Inside Story.

Daniel Marans: Do you see some of these new members from bluer areas giving Obama more breathing room?

Peter Hoekstra: Yeah, absolutely … A lot of people expect this Congress to get some things done.

That said, John [Boehner, the speaker of the House] is going to need to have a willing partner … If the president is in a deal-making mode, they can get it, and it may not be pretty. It is never pretty. With welfare reform — I was there — [President Bill] Clinton vetoed it a couple times and then signed it. We look at those days like it was all working together, but it was a lot uglier than that.

What do you think will be areas of cooperation?

They may be able to get something done on tax reform. It will be incremental, not comprehensive. Paul Ryan [the chairman of the House Budget Committee] has indicated he is willing to work with the president on that. They will also have to do something on spending and sequestration to give the military more money.

What revisions to “Obamacare” would the president not veto?

It all depends on the ruling that comes down from the Supreme Court in May or June as to whether states without their own exchanges are eligible for the subsidies. If that is struck down, then that really opens the floodgates, and the president is going to have to negotiate, and Republicans will be able to make big demands. 

Daniel Marans: Will there be more of the same gridlock in this Congress?

Matthew Johnson: I think there is a desire, a strong desire by congressional Republicans, especially the new incoming leadership in the Senate, to demonstrate they can get things done. I do not think that is just a talking point, but the proof will be in the pudding.

The incoming majority leader of the Senate [Mitch McConnell] fancies himself an old-school legislator and harkens back to the Senate of old that was more freewheeling and driven by rank and file members who had legislative ideas they wanted advanced, and they saw the Senate floor and committee process as a place where they could do that. Sen. McConnell will look to his committee chairmen and chairwomen and try to build consensus there. You will see a less leadership-dictated agenda. That is all geared toward producing results.

That sounds a lot like horse trading. Does this mean giving members more of what they want so they hold their noses and vote on big spending bills and other unpopular items?

I do not know I would put it that way. It is more about making sure that members feel as if their voice is heard and that they get a chance on issues that matter to them. When they go home and go to town hall meetings and talk to interest groups and constituents that matter to them, they can say, “I carried your banner. I fought for this item. We may win some, we may lose some. But I got a chance to vote on this.” Leader McConnell sees it not as placating or throwing crumbs to people but giving individuals with strong views an opportunity to get a vote. And if they lose, then at least they have gotten a chance.

You think McConnell will open up the process to Democrats as well?

He has stated as much. He has made a lot of hay claiming that the outgoing majority leader not only hurt the opposing party by not allowing amendments but hurt his own party. It cannot just be one way. In fact, you can actually probably find that the Senate rules would make governing with just one party getting amendments virtually impossible. If you are opening up the process, it is going to have to be truly bipartisan in its sharing of the stage. You will likely still have the 60-vote threshold, but at least individuals will have their day to get their measure to the floor.

Daniel Marans: Will there be more of the same gridlock in this Congress?

Jim Manley: Based on what I have seen so far, yes. I am very skeptical that the House and Senate GOP will get on same page when it comes to fashioning legislation that can get through the Senate. There will be some low-hanging fruit early on in the year that they will be able to get done, including Keystone pipeline. But other than that, not much.

Won’t the president veto Keystone?

To that I’ll say, if you asked me this question a year ago, I would have said there is a decent chance of not vetoing it. But based on his recent comments, it looks like he is going to veto it.

What will the political fallout from this stalemate be in two years?

A couple months ago, I would have said, “Not a snowball’s chance in hell the Republicans take the White House in 2016.” Now I just simply say I think it is highly unlikely. I am referring to the fact that we got waxed in November. Sen. McConnell said it best — he has been urging his caucus not to scare the American people. I do not think House Republicans in particular will go along with that.