Al Jazeera America NewsDaily
Seven million people voted in Afghanistan’s presidential elections Saturday, and it’s already being hailed a success, despite pre-election violence and early reports of fraud.
It’s a contest between eight men, with three frontrunners:
To win office, a candidate has to grab more than 50 percent of total votes, so a run-off election is likely. And factoring in the time needed to review fraud reports, it may be months before a final winner is declared.
A victory by Ghani or Abdullah could stunt the influence of Karzai, but it’s uncertain whether or not any of the front-runners would differ dramatically on policy toward foreign aid, the presence of U.S. troops, or the Taliban.
To discuss this, Al Jazeera America’s Jonathan Betz spoke with Sayre Nyce, a policy analyst at the International Rescue Committee, and Jamie Tarabay, a senior staff writer at Al Jazeera America. They joined Betz for the regular Sunday-night segment, the Week Ahead.
Betz pointed to a concern that foreign aid has not been effective under Karzai, because of corruption and fraud.
Nyce said the big fear among aid agencies now is that the elections will be viewed as a sign that Afghanistan’s problems are shrinking.
“Right now, there are massive needs,” she said, and aid could alleviate some problems, no matter who wins office. “The U.S. government has spent $1.6 Trillion for the war effort. 0.025 percent of that could provide life-saving needs for all the people with urgent needs this year.”
Karzai had helped design a bilateral agreement with the United States to ensure the continued presence of U.S. troops in his country. But he has refused to sign it and has left the U.S. military unable to plan the drawdown of its 38,000 troops there now.
Tarabay thinks the next president won’t have much choice.
“I think he’ll be looking to sign that agreement pretty quickly,” she said.
“Whoever comes in is going to need American help no matter what,” she said. “The Afghan economy cannot afford to even pay the salaries of the Afghan security forces.”
Tarabay noted the influence of one constant in modern Afghanistan politics: the Taliban.
In some areas, she said, polling stations were closed because of threats from the fundamentalist movement. And although turnout was strong in many places, some people stayed away in fear.
“It wasn’t so much that they were worried about their security on the day,” Tarabay explained, “they were worried about what would happen the day after.”
The bottom line on both aid and the military, she said: “The less reach the U.S. forces have, the more influence the Taliban is likely to have.”
Election to replace President Hamid Karzai is largely peaceful as voters brave Taliban threats and torrential downpours
Afghan security forces have made tremendous strides, but continued success turns on U.S. military support
The rare story of a woman warrior who battled the Soviets and the Taliban in Afghanistan
Error
Sorry, your comment was not saved due to a technical problem. Please try again later or using a different browser.