What is the status of U.S.-Saudi relations?

Will Obama’s visit to Riyadh reassure the Saudis that Washington remains committed to the region?

March 28, 2014 11:30AM ET

by Inside Story Team @AJInsideStoryAM

U.S. President Barack Obama is wrapping his weeklong foreign trip with a short stay in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Friday. The stopover, less than 24 hours, is meant to repair recent strains with King Abdullah.

Saudi Arabia, long considered a pillar of political stability in the Middle East, has seen internal and external tensions in the past year. It lost powerful allies in Egypt and Tunisia during the Arab Spring, even as the United States voiced support for change and the will of the people.

In Egypt in 2012, the country’s first democratic elections swept Mohamed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood-backed candidate and political rival of the Saudis, into office. But Morsi’s tenure as Egypt’s president was short-lived, and he was ousted by the military a little over a year later.

Then in 2013, Obama ruled out air strikes when Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad allegedly used chemical weapons against his own people. The Saudis, antagonized by regional rival Iran’s support of Assad, hoped Obama’s would follow through on his warning that Syria should not cross a “red line.”

Relations between the West and Saudi Arabia were further strained with the breakthrough in nuclear negotiations with Iran last year, leading to the easing of sanctions against the country.

Then the usually buttoned-down Saudis saw an internal danger. Fits of public dissent crept through the cracks in authoritarian control by way of social media. The kingdom declared the Muslim Brotherhood a “terrorist organization,” causing many Saudi supporters to delete their Twitter profiles out of fear of retribution.

Then-President George W. Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, with then–Crown Prince Abdullah in 2005.

JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

Obama’s visit comes amid larger shifts in Saudi-U.S. relations. For decades, Saudi Arabia and the United States have been close allies — so close that Abdullah visited President George W. Bush at his Texas ranch in 2005.

Things have changed. The aging king’s longtime bargaining chip, Saudi Arabia’s oil resources, has lost some value. Fracking for oil and natural gas in places like North Dakota has left the U.S. less dependent on foreign fuel.

Are U.S.-Saudi relations as bad as reports indicate?

The kingdom has been very supportive of the Egyptian military. But has it gone way too far in its crackdown on opposition?

What is Obama’s strategy?

We consulted a panel of foreign relations experts for the Inside Story.

Lawrence J. Korb

Lawrence J. Korb is a senior fellow at American Progress, a senior adviser to the Center for Defense Information and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He was a senior fellow and the director of national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he was also vice president, director of studies and holder of the Maurice Greenberg chair.

Are U.S.-Saudi relations as bad as the media indicate?

It is not the same as it used to be. We are not on the same page on every issue. There are a lot of reasons for it. They were not happy when we went into Iraq because they preferred a Sunni dictator, because they knew it would empower Iran and Shiites. They were not happy with the Iran deal. If Iran gets rid of the sanctions, they are contesting Saudi influence in the region. Then you have the question of Syria. They want us to be more involved. They want us to get rid of Assad because he is a Shiite sympathizer.

Fortunately for us, given the gains we are making in energy, we are not as beholden to them as we used to be. As Tom Friedman said, How are you going to get your oil dealer to do anything? Back in the day, we had the Saudis flood the market with oil, bankrupting the Soviets.

Is there any truth to critique of U.S. nonintervention in Syria? Had we gotten involved earlier, would we have limited influence of radicals among the rebels?

According to former Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, it wouldn't have made any difference. The opposition was not together and never had a coherent plan to present to the Syrian people. People will argue that point. It is hard to prove a counterfactual. My personal opinion is, no, it would not have made any difference. The Saudis are causing problems now because a lot of the arms they have given the rebels have ended up in the hands of radical groups.

What is the Obama administration’s strategy?

The Saudis are upset that we supported Morsi. Well, he was elected. That’s what we stand for. Now the Egyptians are going back to a [deposed President Hosni] Mubarak–type situation. [Gen. Abdel Fattah El] Sissi is going to be elected. Saudis have sent them equipment. Obama is constrained by laws providing aid to Egypt, since they are not a democracy.

Mustafa Alani

Mustafa Alani is the senior adviser and the director of the National Security and Terrorism Studies Department at the Gulf Research Center. He was a consultant on Middle East security and a fellow at the Middle East Security Program at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London.

How real is Saudi-U.S. divergence? Is it overblown?

Not at all. One example is the war in Syria. We are entering the fourth year without a defined U.S. policy toward Syria. We kept very quiet during the Geneva II talks. And we discovered that the master of ceremonies there was Moscow. What are they doing? We do not see any policy.

The same with the Iran nuclear issue. OK, we understand temporary agreement. It will be followed by a more comprehensive agreement. But the Iranian reading may be very different from U.S. reading. And we are worried their reading may win out. This is causing the U.S. to lose a lot of credibility. It is not just a global power. It is a local power with implications in the region. Same thing with the Palestinian issue. [Obama] came with big promises, but he was unable to stop settlement building.

We moved … from unpredictable president, Bush the son, to indecisive president who cannot even use force when it is justified. He is not taking responsibility for being a superpower.

The kingdom has been very supportive of the Egyptian military. But hasn’t it gone too far in its crackdown on opposition?

Yes, you are right. There is no dispute with the U.S. that they have gone too far. But at the same time, there is no patience for allowing Muslim Brotherhood again after a year in power when they monopolized power and the country was in shambles. They mismanaged everything. This is a region of security. Other countries are under obligations to act. And there is criticism of the military’s behavior in our press. We should have an internationally monitored election and let the people decide.

What will Abdullah tell Obama about what the U.S. and Saudi Arabia can do to get Egypt on a stable track?

The request for Mr. Obama is just to wait and see. Let the presidential and parliamentary elections occur. You cannot allow the Muslim Brotherhood, which has never been democratic, become the supreme power in the Arab world. So we say it has just been a few months.